A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Novak Djokovic goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Cincinnati round of 64. Novak Djokovic comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Thiago Agustin Tirante is 7-3 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tirante needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.