Wednesday's Basel round of 32 pits Novak Djokovic against Ugo Humbert on hard. Novak Djokovic has won 6 of the last 10. Ugo Humbert is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Novak Djokovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Djokovic around 73%. Anything other than a Djokovic win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.