A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Pablo Carreno Busta goes up against Tomas Machac in the Cincinnati first round. Tomas Machac has won 6 of the last 10. Pablo Carreno Busta is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Machac.