A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Pablo Carreno Busta goes up against Tomas Machac in the Cincinnati first round. Tomas Machac has won 6 of the last 10. Pablo Carreno Busta is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Tomas Machac simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Machac.