Tuesday's Estoril round of 32 pits Pablo Carreno Busta against Vilius Gaubas on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta is 6-4 across recent matches. Vilius Gaubas has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Busta has been winning 68.1% of first-serve points to Gaubas's 64.8%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Anything other than a Busta win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Pablo Carreno Busta | Vilius Gaubas |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 65.3% | 67.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 68.1% | 64.8% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.6% | 50.5% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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