A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Paula Badosa goes up against Yulia Putintseva in the Bastad semifinal. Yulia Putintseva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Paula Badosa has won 4 of the last 10.

Paula Badosa has had the better of this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 against Yulia Putintseva. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Badosa — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule; Putintseva comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Putintseva fractionally more likely to land the big points.