Wednesday's Winnipeg round of 32 pits Philip Sekulic against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Philip Sekulic is 6-4 across recent matches. Shintaro Mochizuki has won 7 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sekulic.