Thursday's Lyon (France) round of 16 pits Pierre Hugues Herbert against Taylor Fritz on clay. Taylor Fritz has won 5 of the last 10. Pierre Hugues Herbert comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.

Taylor Fritz is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Fritz around 75%. Herbert comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Fritz win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.