It all comes down to Monday at Washington, where Rafael Jodar faces Taylor Fritz for the trophy. Taylor Fritz has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Rafael Jodar is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Fritz has been winning 74.6% of first-serve points to Jodar's 69.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Jodar arrives with very little recovery time; Fritz comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fritz.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Rafael Jodar | Taylor Fritz |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 61.9% | 61.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 69.2% | 74.6% |
| 2nd serve points won | 51.8% | 52.3% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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