US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 1, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC · Cancelled
Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 1, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Rafael Jodar goes up against Thanasi Kokkinakis in the US Open first round. Rafael Jodar is 7-3 across recent matches. Thanasi Kokkinakis limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Jodar gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-143(58.8% Jodar)
Market-668(87.0% Jodar)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Rafael Jodar
1982
Thanasi Kokkinakis
1816
Overall rating
Rafael Jodar
2086
Thanasi Kokkinakis
1853
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Rafael Jodar
Thanasi Kokkinakis
1st serve in
62%
61.3%
1st serve points won
69.4%
74.6%
2nd serve points won
51.4%
48.5%
Form
Rafael Jodar
7–3
Thanasi Kokkinakis
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Rafael Jodar vs Thanasi Kokkinakis?
Maiden gives Rafael Jodar a 59% chance to beat Thanasi Kokkinakis in the US Open first round on September 1, 2026.
How confident is the Rafael Jodar pick?
59% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 59%, picks in that range have won 65% of the time (362 so far). See the track record page for the full table.