US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 2, 2026, 5:20 PM UTC
Rafael Jodar vs. Y. Bu — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Wednesday's US Open first round pits Rafael Jodar against Y. Bu on hard. Rafael Jodar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Y. Bu has won 5 of the last 10.
Rafael Jodar is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Jodar around 76%. If Jodar plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-319(76.1% Jodar)
Market-800(88.9% Jodar)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Rafael Jodar
1956
Y. Bu
1683
Overall rating
Rafael Jodar
2076
Y. Bu
1697
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Rafael Jodar
Y. Bu
1st serve in
62%
57.2%
1st serve points won
69.4%
71.6%
2nd serve points won
51.4%
50.9%
Form
Rafael Jodar
7–3
Y. Bu
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Maiden gives Rafael Jodar a 76% chance to beat Y. Bu in the US Open first round on September 2, 2026.
How confident is the Rafael Jodar pick?
76% is a “Strong” tier pick. When we make a pick around 76%, picks in that range have won 71% of the time (31 so far). See the track record page for the full table.