Shuai Zhang and Tereza Valentova meet in the round of 32 at Osaka on Tuesday. Tereza Valentova is 6-4 across recent matches. Shuai Zhang has won 4 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Valentova has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Zhang's 59.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Valentova is exactly that — a lean.