Wednesday's Olbia round of 16 pits Stefano Travaglia against Valentin Royer on hard. Valentin Royer has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Stefano Travaglia limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Travaglia comes in off a compressed schedule; Royer comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Royer is exactly that — a lean.