A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Stefanos Tsitsipas goes up against Taylor Fritz in the Shanghai round of 32. Taylor Fritz comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 8 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fritz is exactly that — a lean.