Sunday's US Open first round pits Toby Samuel against Tomas Machac on hard. Toby Samuel comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Tomas Machac is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Toby Samuel is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Samuel around 53%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Samuel fractionally more likely to land the big points.