A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Y. Bu goes up against Yibing Wu in the Lincoln round of 16. Yibing Wu limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10. Y. Bu is 4-6 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Wu gets the nod on the finest of margins.