Best College Football Games, Week 4 2026
The 5 biggest games of week 4, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and the games we have no call on are marked as such, not papered over.
Week 4 of the 2026 college football season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Georgia Bulldogs at 76% to win against Oklahoma Sooners. The desk has a call on 49 of the 58 FBS games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included. Where we could not clear our own confidence floor we say so plainly rather than quietly leaving the game out.
Every college football prediction we published for Week 4, 2026 is on the Week 4, 2026 board.
1. Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers prediction
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The top-ranked Texas Longhorns travel to Neyland Stadium to face the fourteenth-ranked Tennessee Volunteers in a massive conference game. The Volunteers boast the third-ranked offence in the country, while the Longhorns counter with an eighth-ranked defence. A game we will not call is still a call.
2. Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers prediction
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The tenth-ranked LSU Tigers hold a narrow six-to-five lead in the series since 2015, but the twenty-third-ranked Texas A&M Aggies won the last meeting by twenty-four points. This matchup pits two top-twenty-five teams against each other in Death Valley. A game we will not call is still a call.
3. Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogs prediction
Georgia Bulldogs, 76% to win. We project them by 11.8.
Projected total 46.
Our pick landed: Georgia Bulldogs won 41-13. We had them at 76%.
Our number here is Georgia Bulldogs at 76%. That is a game we would expect them to win three times out of four. No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs and No. 24 Oklahoma Sooners carry a ranking into it.
The Georgia Bulldogs offence is the separator here. Georgia boast the second-ranked offence, and they face an Oklahoma Sooners defence that ranks second. The Bulldogs hold the edge on that side of the ball. Oklahoma return 63% of their roster to Sanford Stadium on Saturday, but the Bulldogs have 69% returning to play between the hedges.
4. Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
Mississippi State Bulldogs, 56% to win. We project them by 2.3.
Projected total 58.2.
Our pick landed: Mississippi State Bulldogs won 31-24. We had them at 56%.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at 56% is where the desk lands. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs and No. 19 Missouri Tigers carry a ranking into it.
The Missouri Tigers defence is the deciding factor. The Tigers finished 13th on defence last season, and they face a Mississippi State Bulldogs offence that also ranked 13th. That strength-on-strength matchup favours the Bulldogs on their home field at Davis Wade Stadium. Missouri returns 42% of their production to counter that attack, while Mississippi State brings back 34%.
· Full Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction
5. Utah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones prediction
Utah Utes, 64% to win. We project them by 6.
Projected total 51.2.
Our pick landed: Utah Utes won 31-17. We had them at 64%.
Our number here is Utah Utes at 64%. That is comfortable without being close to safe. No. 15 Utah Utes carry a ranking into it.
The Utah Utes offence is the separator in this conference game. The Utes field the 15th-ranked offence against an Iowa State Cyclones defence that finished 29th. The Cyclones struggle on the other side of the ball with an offence ranked 81st, which faces a tough task against a Utah defence ranked 21st. Utah also bring back 68% of their production while Iowa State return just 2%.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogs?
- Our model makes Georgia Bulldogs 76% to win against Oklahoma Sooners. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest college football game in week 4?
- Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 49 of the 58 FBS games being played. Anything our model cannot get above 55% confidence on is left off rather than published as a coin flip.
- Why is there no prediction for one of these games?
- Because our model landed in a band where our own record says we are unreliable. We publish the games we can stand behind and say nothing on the ones we cannot — the misses we do publish stay on the record permanently.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.