Best College Football Games, Week 6, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 6, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and the games we have no call on are marked as such, not papered over.
Week 6 of the 2026 college football season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Texas Longhorns at 69% to win against Oklahoma Sooners. The desk has a call on 46 of the 58 FBS games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included. Where we could not clear our own confidence floor we say so plainly rather than quietly leaving the game out.
Every college football prediction we published for Week 6, 2026 is on the Week 6, 2026 board.
1. Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide prediction
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The Georgia Bulldogs bring the top-ranked defence in the country to Bryant-Denny Stadium after beating the Alabama Crimson Tide 28-7 in their last meeting in 2025. Alabama still hold an 8-2 lead in the series since 2015. Passing on a coin flip is the only honest way to handle a board this tight.
2. Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners prediction — the Red River Rivalry
Texas Longhorns, 69% to win. We project them by 8.1.
Projected total 41.1.
We make it Texas Longhorns, 69% to win. That is roughly two times in three.
The Texas Longhorns offence is the separator in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. The Longhorns field the 16th-ranked offence against an Oklahoma Sooners defence that finished 6th. The real trouble for the Sooners is on the other side of the ball. The Oklahoma offence finished 76th last season, and they must find a way to move the ball against a Texas defence ranked 5th.
3. Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers prediction
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The Texas A&M Aggies hold a 3-0 record over the Missouri Tigers since 2015, including a 38-17 victory in 2025. The Tigers bring the 14th-ranked defence to Memorial Stadium to stop the Aggies' 38th-ranked offence. A game we will not call is still a call.
4. USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany Lions prediction
Penn State Nittany Lions, 62% to win. We project them by 5.
Projected total 57.7.
Our number here is Penn State Nittany Lions at 62%. That is comfortable without being close to safe.
The USC Trojans offence ranks 3rd, and their ability to move the ball against a Penn State Nittany Lions defence ranked 12th is the deciding factor. When the Nittany Lions have the ball, their 28th-ranked offence faces a Trojans defence ranked 49th. This conference game at Beaver Stadium features a White Out, which is the loudest night in the Big Ten.
5. Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies prediction
Iowa Hawkeyes, 55% to win. We project them by 2.3.
Projected total 43.
Our number here is Iowa Hawkeyes at 55%. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work.
The Iowa Hawkeyes bring a defence ranked 10th to Husky Stadium to face a Washington Huskies offence that finished 45th. That matchup on the Huskies' side of the ball is the key to this Friday conference game. The Hawkeyes won the last meeting in 2024 by a margin of 24 points, and their defensive edge makes them the lean.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners?
- Our model makes Texas Longhorns 69% to win against Oklahoma Sooners. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest college football game in Week 6?
- Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 46 of the 58 FBS games being played. Anything our model cannot get above 55% confidence on is left off rather than published as a coin flip.
- Why is there no prediction for one of these games?
- Because our model landed in a band where our own record says we are unreliable. We publish the games we can stand behind and say nothing on the ones we cannot — the misses we do publish stay on the record permanently.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.