Best College Football Games, Week 7, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 7, with our win probability on every one we have a number on — and a straight answer on the one we do not.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and the games we have no call on are marked as such, not papered over.
Week 7 of the 2026 college football season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 71% to win against BYU Cougars. The desk has a call on 47 of the 59 FBS games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included. Where we could not clear our own confidence floor we say so plainly rather than quietly leaving the game out.
Every college football prediction we published for Week 7, 2026 is on the Week 7, 2026 board.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers prediction — the Third Saturday in October
Alabama Crimson Tide, 62% to win. We project them by 5.1.
Projected total 58.6.
Alabama Crimson Tide at 62% is where the desk lands. That is comfortable without being close to safe.
Alabama's 7th-ranked offence holds a clear edge over the Volunteers' 26th-ranked defence. Tennessee counters with the 14th-best offence against a Tide defence that finished 13th. That gap up front gives Alabama control. The Third Saturday in October goes down at Neyland Stadium, where fans sail to the game on the Tennessee River.
· Full Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers prediction
2. Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers prediction
Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana Hoosiers
We publish no prediction on this game. No number of ours appears below.
This one may be the best watch of the week and we are not calling it: our model landed too close to a coin flip here to put a number on it. We would rather say nothing than publish something we could not stand behind on Monday.
The top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes offence faces the 7th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers defence in Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN). Indiana won the last meeting 13-10 in 2025 by a slim margin of 3. Two elite sides on the board with nothing separating them makes this Big Ten clash an elite watch. A game we will not call is still a call.
3. Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels prediction
Ole Miss Rebels, 66% to win. We project them by 7.1.
Projected total 56.6.
Ole Miss Rebels, 67% to win, and that is the call. That is a clear lean rather than a certainty.
The Ole Miss Rebels hold the edge with their 12th-ranked offence, but the Missouri Tigers defence, ranked 14th, is the focal point on Saturday. That group is the true separator in this SEC game. Vaught-Hemingway Stadium sees a collision where Ole Miss must crack an elite Missouri defence to pull away.
4. TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears prediction — the Revivalry
Baylor Bears, 61% to win. We project them by 4.8.
Projected total 51.6.
Baylor Bears at 62% is where the desk lands. That is comfortable without being close to safe.
The board shows an even split across both sides of the ball. The TCU Horned Frogs bring the 58th-ranked offence against a Baylor defence that ranked 32nd, while the Bears rank 55th on offence against the 28th-ranked TCU defence. Both teams come off a bye into the Revivalry at McLane Stadium, where TCU won 42-36 last season.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU Cougars prediction
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 71% to win. We project them by 9.4.
Projected total 52.9.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 71% to win, and that is the call. That is roughly two times in three.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offence carries the biggest advantage on the board, ranking 4th against a BYU Cougars defence that ranked 21st. The Cougars hold the 24th-ranked offence, but they must break through a Fighting Irish defence that finished 3rd. That gap on both sides of the ball is why the road team controls this non-conference game.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU Cougars?
- Our model makes Notre Dame Fighting Irish 71% to win against BYU Cougars. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest college football game in Week 7?
- Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee Volunteers is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 47 of the 59 FBS games being played. Anything our model cannot get above 55% confidence on is left off rather than published as a coin flip.
- Why is there no prediction for one of these games?
- Because our model landed in a band where our own record says we are unreliable. We publish the games we can stand behind and say nothing on the ones we cannot — the misses we do publish stay on the record permanently.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.