Best NFL Games, Week 3 2026
The 5 biggest games of week 3, with our win probability on every one.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and nothing here is edited after the fact.
Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Baltimore Ravens at 66% to win against Dallas Cowboys. The desk has a call on 16 of the 16 games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included.
Every NFL prediction we published for Week 3, 2026 is on the Week 3, 2026 board.
2. Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos prediction
Los Angeles Rams, 56% to win. We project them by 1.8.
Projected total 44.3.
Our pick missed: Los Angeles Rams lost by 4. We had them at 56%, and it stays on the record.
Los Angeles Rams at 56% is where the desk lands. That is closer to even than the pick makes it sound. We project them by 1.8.
The Los Angeles Rams bring the second-ranked offence into this game, and their passing game ranks third. That attack is the separator against a Denver defence that ranks seventh. Empower Field at Mile High sits a mile above sea level, and visiting teams feel the fourth quarter, which makes the Rams' ability to move the ball early critical.
3. New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars prediction
Jacksonville Jaguars, 53% to win. We project them by 0.8.
Projected total 42.6.
Our pick landed: Jacksonville Jaguars won by 29. We had them at 53%.
Jacksonville Jaguars at 53% is where the desk lands. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. We have it as a grind.
New England brings a 7th-ranked offence and a 4th-ranked defence into this game, while Jacksonville counters with the 13th offence and 10th defence. Neither side holds a clear advantage on either side of the ball. With both teams so evenly matched across the board, expect a low-scoring grind where every yard is contested.
· Full New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars prediction
4. Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers prediction
Cincinnati Bengals, 52% to win. We project them by 0.8.
Projected total 45.9.
Our pick missed: Cincinnati Bengals lost by 3. We had them at 52%, and it stays on the record.
Cincinnati Bengals at 52% is where the desk lands. That is as close to even as our model gets, and we are not dressing it up.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defence is the deciding factor on Sunday. Pittsburgh rank 18th on that side of the ball, which gives them a slight edge against a Cincinnati offence sitting 15th. This division game will be won in the dirt, as the Bengals struggle to stop anyone and currently carry a defence ranked 27th overall.
5. Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys prediction — NFL Rio de Janeiro Game
Baltimore Ravens, 66% to win. We project them by 5.2.
Projected total 51.5.
Our pick landed: Baltimore Ravens won by 3. We had them at 66%.
Our number here is Baltimore Ravens at 66%. That is comfortable without being close to safe. We project them by 5.2. We have it as a shootout.
The Baltimore Ravens hold the advantage because of their defence. Dallas have the worst overall defence in the league, ranking 32nd, which gives the 4th-ranked Baltimore offence a massive edge. While the Cowboys can throw the ball with their 7th-ranked passing game, they must do it against a respectable Ravens defence. Expect a shootout at Maracana Stadium.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys?
- Our model makes Baltimore Ravens 66% to win against Dallas Cowboys. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest NFL game in week 3?
- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 16 of the 16 games being played. Our NFL board carries a number on every game on the slate rather than withholding the close ones, and every one of them is graded afterwards, win or lose.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.