Best NFL Games, Week 5, 2026
The 5 biggest games of Week 5, with our win probability on every one.
Sparks is Maiden's editorial desk. Every figure below traces to a number we published before kickoff, and nothing here is edited after the fact.
- Seattle Seahawks-145
- Los Angeles Rams-145
- Jacksonville Jaguars-305
- Denver Broncos-164
Consensus across books when this was published, October 7, 2026. Prices move; we do not update them here.
Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season gives us 5 games worth clearing your schedule for. Our strongest number on the slate is Jacksonville Jaguars at 74% to win against Philadelphia Eagles. The desk has a call on 15 of the 15 games being played, and every one of them is published before kickoff and graded in public afterwards — misses included.
Every NFL prediction we published for Week 5, 2026 is on the Week 5, 2026 board.
1. San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks prediction
Seattle Seahawks, 60% to win. We project them by 3.2.
Projected total 46.3.
Seattle Seahawks, 60% to win, and that is the call. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. We project them by 3.2.
Seattle's eighth-ranked offence has a clear advantage against a San Francisco defence that sits twenty-fourth in the league. The Seahawks also bring the second-ranked pass defence to Lumen Field, a venue built to trap noise. This division game turns on whether the 49ers can move the ball through the air against that elite secondary.
2. Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams prediction
Los Angeles Rams, 54% to win. We project them by 1.2.
Projected total 53.2.
Los Angeles Rams at 54% is where the desk lands. That is close enough to even that the number is doing very little work. We project them by 1.2. We have it as a shootout.
The Buffalo Bills bring the top-ranked offence this season to face a Los Angeles Rams side that ranks second on that side of the ball. Neither defence has a clear advantage here, with Buffalo ranked 13th and Los Angeles 12th. This sets up a high-scoring Monday night where the passing games dictate everything, much like the 44-42 shootout these teams played in 2024.
3. Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars prediction — NFL London Game
Jacksonville Jaguars, 74% to win. We project them by 8.2.
Projected total 42.8.
Jacksonville Jaguars, 74% to win, and that is the call. That is roughly two times in three. We project them by 8.2. We have it as a grind.
The Philadelphia Eagles bring the eighth-ranked defence to face a Jacksonville offence ranked thirteenth, while the Jaguars counter with the tenth-ranked defence against the eleventh-ranked Philadelphia offence. Neither side holds a clear advantage on the field. This neutral-site game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium shapes up as a low-scoring struggle, with a projected total of 42.8 points.
· Full Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars prediction
5. Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers prediction
Denver Broncos, 59% to win. We project them by 2.8.
Projected total 42.8.
Denver Broncos at 59% is where the desk lands. That is the thin end of a call, and we will say so. We project them by 2.8. We have it as a grind.
This division game is even across the board because both defences dominate. The Chargers have the 5th-ranked defence to stifle a Denver offence sitting 18th, while the Broncos counter with the 7th-ranked defence against a struggling Los Angeles offence ranked 25th. Expect a grind where neither passing game can find room against two top-eight pass defences.
Every number above went on the record before kickoff and gets graded afterwards, win or lose. The misses stay up.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars?
- Our model makes Jacksonville Jaguars 74% to win against Philadelphia Eagles. That number was published before kickoff and will be graded in public afterwards.
- What is the biggest NFL game in Week 5?
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks is the game we rate highest this week, on a combination of how good both teams are, how close we expect it to be, and where it sits in the broadcast schedule.
- How many games does the desk have a call on this week?
- 15 of the 15 games being played. Our NFL board carries a number on every game on the slate rather than withholding the close ones, and every one of them is graded afterwards, win or lose.
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Every prediction here is graded after the game and kept up, hit or miss.