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Tennis predictions, May 17, 2026: Trungelliti vs. Navone, Sakkari vs. Stearns

By The Maiden Desk · May 17, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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4 matches are on Sunday's card across 3 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Marco Trungelliti against Mariano Navone in the round of 32. Our calls: Trungelliti over Navone, Sakkari over Stearns, Kasatkina over Zakharova, Ferro over Avanesyan.

May 16, 2026 results: 3-1 how our picks graded, match by match.

Marco Trungelliti vs. Mariano Navone

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Marco Trungelliti at 54%, but Mariano Navone won 5-7 7-5 6-1.

Pick: Trungelliti

Win probability: 54% Trungelliti

A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Marco Trungelliti goes up against Mariano Navone in the Geneva round of 32. Marco Trungelliti limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Mariano Navone comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Mariano Navone has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Marco Trungelliti. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Navone — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 67.7% versus 62.7% on first-serve points in Trungelliti's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Trungelliti is exactly that — a lean.

Maria Sakkari vs. Peyton Stearns

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Maria Sakkari at 59%, but Peyton Stearns won 6-3 6-1.

Pick: Sakkari

Win probability: 59% Sakkari

Sunday's Strasbourg round of 32 pits Maria Sakkari against Peyton Stearns on clay. Maria Sakkari comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Peyton Stearns comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Peyton Stearns has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Maria Sakkari. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Stearns — worth more than the overall number this week.

Sakkari's 64.4% behind the first serve (against 60.6% for Stearns) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Sakkari gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Anastasia Zakharova vs. Daria Kasatkina

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Daria Kasatkina was our 51% pick, and won 6-4 5-2.

Pick: Kasatkina

Win probability: 51% Kasatkina

It all comes down to Sunday at Strasbourg, where Anastasia Zakharova faces Daria Kasatkina for the trophy. Daria Kasatkina has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Kasatkina gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Elina Avanesyan vs. Fiona Ferro

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Fiona Ferro at 57% before the match, and Fiona Ferro won 6-7 6-0 6-3.

Pick: Ferro

Win probability: 57% Ferro

Sunday brings the Rabat final: Elina Avanesyan against Fiona Ferro. Fiona Ferro comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Elina Avanesyan has won 3 of the last 10.

The ledger favors Elina Avanesyan, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Fiona Ferro. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Avanesyan — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ferro is exactly that — a lean.

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Updated Jul 3, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.