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Tennis predictions, May 23, 2026: Buse vs. Paul, Tien vs. Navone

By The Maiden Desk · May 23, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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3 matches are on Saturday's card across 3 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ignacio Buse against Tommy Paul in the final. Our calls: Buse over Paul, Tien over Navone, Navarro over Mboko.

May 22, 2026 results: 6-6 how our picks graded, match by match.

Ignacio Buse vs. Tommy Paul

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Ignacio Buse was our 54% pick, and won 7-6 4-6 6-3.

Pick: Buse

Win probability: 54% Buse

Saturday brings the Hamburg final: Ignacio Buse against Tommy Paul. Ignacio Buse is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Tommy Paul brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Ignacio Buse leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Buse — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Buse comes in off a compressed schedule; Paul comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Buse gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Learner Tien vs. Mariano Navone

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Learner Tien at 60% before the match, and Learner Tien won 3-6 6-3 7-5.

Pick: Tien

Win probability: 60% Tien

The Geneva title is on the line on Saturday, when Learner Tien meets Mariano Navone. Learner Tien has won 6 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Mariano Navone brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Learner Tien has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Mariano Navone. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tien — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Tien has been winning 69.3% of first-serve points to Navone's 62.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Tien comes in off a compressed schedule; Navone comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Tien gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Emma Navarro vs. Victoria Mboko

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Emma Navarro at 59% before the match, and Emma Navarro won 6-0 5-7 6-2.

Pick: Navarro

Win probability: 59% Navarro

It all comes down to Saturday at Strasbourg, where Emma Navarro faces Victoria Mboko for the trophy. Emma Navarro is rolling — 5 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Victoria Mboko brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Emma Navarro leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Navarro — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Navarro comes in off a compressed schedule; Mboko comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Navarro fractionally more likely to land the big points.

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Updated Jul 3, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.