Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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12 matches are on Wednesday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Adrian Mannarino against Remy Bertola in the round of 32. Our calls: Mannarino over Bertola, Dolehide over Sawangkaew, Holmgren over Schoolkate, Zhao over Stefanini, Ficovich over Galarneau, Cassone over Blanch, and 6 more.
The boldest call on the card: Walton over Mcdonald — the market disagrees with us there.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Adam Walton was our 64% pick, and won 6-1 6-3.
Pick: WaltonUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Mcdonald the favorite; our numbers say Walton.
Win probability: 64% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)
Adam Walton and Mackenzie Mcdonald meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. Adam Walton limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Mackenzie Mcdonald limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Walton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Liam Broady at 54% before the match, and Liam Broady won 7-6 6-3.
Pick: BroadyUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Vukic the favorite; our numbers say Broady.
Win probability: 54% Broady · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Liam Broady in the Newport round of 32. Liam Broady comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Aleksandar Vukic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Liam Broady leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On grass specifically it reads 1-0 Broady — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Broady is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Caroline Dolehide at 53% lost to Mananchaya Sawangkaew (6-3 6-4).
Pick: DolehideUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Sawangkaew the favorite; our numbers say Dolehide.
Win probability: 53% Dolehide · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets
Wednesday's Newport round of 32 pits Caroline Dolehide against Mananchaya Sawangkaew on grass. Caroline Dolehide limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Dolehide gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Y. Bu at 51% before the match, and Y. Bu won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: BuUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Glinka the favorite; our numbers say Bu.
Win probability: 51% Bu · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets
Daniil Glinka and Y. Bu meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. Y. Bu is 4-6 across recent matches. Daniil Glinka is 5-5 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bu is exactly that — a lean.
Win probability: 62% Sakamoto · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
James Mccabe and Rei Sakamoto meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. Rei Sakamoto comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. James Mccabe has won 4 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakamoto.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Andre Ilagan, who won 7-5 3-6 6-3.
Pick: IlaganUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Noguchi the favorite; our numbers say Ilagan.
Win probability: 52% Ilagan · Most likely score: 2-1 (27%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andre Ilagan goes up against Rio Noguchi in the Newport round of 32. Andre Ilagan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Rio Noguchi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Rio Noguchi leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Andre Ilagan is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Ilagan around 52%. Ilagan comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Ilagan gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Adrian Mannarino, who won 6-2 6-1.
Pick: Mannarino
Win probability: 50% Mannarino · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)
Wednesday's Newport round of 32 pits Adrian Mannarino against Remy Bertola on grass. Adrian Mannarino limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Remy Bertola comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Remy Bertola has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Adrian Mannarino.
Adrian Mannarino simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Mannarino gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Juan Pablo Ficovich; Alexis Galarneau won 4-6 6-4 7-6.
Pick: FicovichUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Galarneau the favorite; our numbers say Ficovich.
Win probability: 54% Ficovich · Most likely score: 2-1 (28%) · Could go long: 54% chance of a full three sets
Wednesday's Newport round of 32 pits Alexis Galarneau against Juan Pablo Ficovich on grass. Juan Pablo Ficovich is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10). Alexis Galarneau limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ficovich fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Jason Jung, who won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Jung
Win probability: 59% Jung · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%) · Could go long: 49% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when James Mccabe goes up against Jason Jung in the Newport round of 32. Jason Jung has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. James Mccabe is 4-6 across recent matches.
James Mccabe leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Jason Jung is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Jung around 59%. Jung comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Jung gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Carol Zhao at 59% lost to Lucrezia Stefanini (6-3 6-1).
Pick: Zhao
Win probability: 59% Zhao · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%) · Could go long: 43% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Carol Zhao goes up against Lucrezia Stefanini in the Newport round of 32. Carol Zhao limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Lucrezia Stefanini is 3-7 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Zhao has been winning 60.7% of first-serve points to Stefanini's 54.8%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Zhao gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Murphy Cassone; Darwin Blanch won 6-4 1-6 6-3.
Pick: CassoneUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Blanch the favorite; our numbers say Cassone.
Win probability: 51% Cassone · Most likely score: 2-1 (27%) · Could go long: 54% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Darwin Blanch goes up against Murphy Cassone in the Newport round of 32. Murphy Cassone has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Darwin Blanch limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The ledger favors Murphy Cassone, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Darwin Blanch.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cassone fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had August Holmgren at 51%, but Tristan Schoolkate won 6-3 6-7 6-3.
Pick: Holmgren
Win probability: 51% Holmgren · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 48% chance of a full three sets
August Holmgren and Tristan Schoolkate meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. August Holmgren is 6-4 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Holmgren is exactly that — a lean.
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