Newport Predictions & Picks — July 8, 2026
By The Maiden Desk · July 8, 2026
Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.
13 matches are on Wednesday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Adam Walton against Mackenzie Mcdonald in the round of 32. Our calls: Walton over Mcdonald, Broady over Vukic, Dolehide over Sawangkaew, Bu over Glinka, Sakamoto over Mccabe, Ilagan over Noguchi, Mannarino over Bertola, Ficovich over Galarneau, Jung over Mccabe, Zhao over Stefanini, Cassone over Blanch, Lajal over Fearnley, Holmgren over Schoolkate. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Walton over Mcdonald — the ratings disagree with us there.
Adam Walton and Mackenzie Mcdonald meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. Adam Walton limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Mackenzie Mcdonald limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Walton — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: WaltonUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Mcdonald; our numbers say Walton.
Win probability: 64% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Adam Walton was our 64% pick, and won 6-1 6-3.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Liam Broady in the Newport round of 32. Liam Broady comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Aleksandar Vukic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Broady is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: BroadyUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Vukic; our numbers say Broady.
Win probability: 54% Broady · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 54% on Liam Broady, and Liam Broady won 7-6 6-3.
Wednesday's Newport round of 32 pits Caroline Dolehide against Mananchaya Sawangkaew on grass. Caroline Dolehide limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Dolehide gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: DolehideUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Sawangkaew; our numbers say Dolehide.
Win probability: 53% Dolehide · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Caroline Dolehide at 53% lost to Mananchaya Sawangkaew (6-3 6-4). It counts against our record like every other miss.
Daniil Glinka and Y. Bu meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. Y. Bu is 4-6 across recent matches. Daniil Glinka is 5-5 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bu is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: BuUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Glinka; our numbers say Bu.
Win probability: 51% Bu · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 51% chance of a full three sets
✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 51% on Y. Bu, and Y. Bu won 6-4 6-4.
James Mccabe and Rei Sakamoto meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. Rei Sakamoto comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. James Mccabe has won 4 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sakamoto.
Pick: Sakamoto
Win probability: 62% Sakamoto · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andre Ilagan goes up against Rio Noguchi in the Newport round of 32. Andre Ilagan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Rio Noguchi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Rio Noguchi leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Ilagan comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Ilagan gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: IlaganUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Noguchi; our numbers say Ilagan.
Win probability: 52% Ilagan · Most likely score: 2-1 (27%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Andre Ilagan, who won 7-5 3-6 6-3.
Wednesday's Newport round of 32 pits Adrian Mannarino against Remy Bertola on grass. Adrian Mannarino limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Remy Bertola comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Remy Bertola has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Adrian Mannarino.
Adrian Mannarino simply rates much higher on grass, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Mannarino gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mannarino
Win probability: 50% Mannarino · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Adrian Mannarino, who won 6-2 6-1.
Wednesday's Newport round of 32 pits Alexis Galarneau against Juan Pablo Ficovich on grass. Juan Pablo Ficovich is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10). Alexis Galarneau limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ficovich fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: FicovichUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Galarneau; our numbers say Ficovich.
Win probability: 54% Ficovich · Most likely score: 2-1 (28%) · Could go long: 54% chance of a full three sets
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 54% on Juan Pablo Ficovich; Alexis Galarneau won 4-6 6-4 7-6.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when James Mccabe goes up against Jason Jung in the Newport round of 32. Jason Jung has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. James Mccabe is 4-6 across recent matches.
James Mccabe leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Jason Jung is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Jung around 59%. Jung comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Jung gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Jung
Win probability: 59% Jung · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%) · Could go long: 49% chance of a full three sets
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Jason Jung, who won 6-4 6-3.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Carol Zhao goes up against Lucrezia Stefanini in the Newport round of 32. Carol Zhao limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Lucrezia Stefanini is 3-7 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Zhao has been winning 60.7% of first-serve points to Stefanini's 54.8%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Zhao gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zhao
Win probability: 59% Zhao · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%) · Could go long: 43% chance of a full three sets
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Carol Zhao at 59% lost to Lucrezia Stefanini (6-3 6-1). It counts against our record like every other miss.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Darwin Blanch goes up against Murphy Cassone in the Newport round of 32. Murphy Cassone has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Darwin Blanch limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The ledger favors Murphy Cassone, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Darwin Blanch.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cassone fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: CassoneUpset call
Upset call — the ratings lean Blanch; our numbers say Cassone.
Win probability: 51% Cassone · Most likely score: 2-1 (27%) · Could go long: 54% chance of a full three sets
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 51% on Murphy Cassone; Darwin Blanch won 6-4 1-6 6-3.
Thursday's Newport round of 32 pits Jacob Fearnley against Mark Lajal on grass. Mark Lajal is 7-3 across recent matches. Jacob Fearnley has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Lajal has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Fearnley's 70.3%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Lajal is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Lajal
Win probability: 56% Lajal · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
August Holmgren and Tristan Schoolkate meet in the round of 32 at Newport on Wednesday. August Holmgren is 6-4 across recent matches. Tristan Schoolkate comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on grass, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Holmgren is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Holmgren
Win probability: 51% Holmgren · Most likely score: 2-0 (27%) · Could go long: 48% chance of a full three sets
✗ Pick wrongGraded: incorrect. We had August Holmgren at 51%, but Tristan Schoolkate won 6-3 6-7 6-3. This one goes in the ledger — every miss stays on the record.