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Wimbledon predictions, July 8, 2026: Zverev vs. Fritz, Mertens vs. Noskova

By The Maiden Desk · July 8, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Wimbledon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Zverev against Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Zverev over Fritz, Noskova over Mertens, Fery over Cobolli, Kostyuk over Paolini.

The boldest call on the card: Kostyuk over Paolini — the market disagrees with us there.

July 7, 2026 results: 2-2 how our picks graded, match by match.

Elise Mertens vs. Linda Noskova

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Linda Noskova was our 65% pick, and won 6-3 7-5.

Pick: Noskova

Win probability: 65% Noskova · Most likely score: 2-0 (42%)

Wednesday's Wimbledon quarterfinal pits Elise Mertens against Linda Noskova on grass. Linda Noskova has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Elise Mertens has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Noskova has been winning 69.4% of first-serve points to Mertens's 63.6%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule; Noskova comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Noskova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Jasmine Paolini vs. Marta Kostyuk

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Marta Kostyuk was our 58% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.

Pick: KostyukUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Paolini the favorite; our numbers say Kostyuk.

Win probability: 58% Kostyuk · Most likely score: 2-0 (40%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon quarterfinal. Marta Kostyuk is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Jasmine Paolini brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Jasmine Paolini has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Marta Kostyuk.

Hold strength tells the story — 64.1% versus 60.1% on first-serve points in Kostyuk's favor. Paolini comes in off a compressed schedule; Kostyuk comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kostyuk fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alexander Zverev at 52% before the match, and Alexander Zverev won 6-4 6-4 6-2.

Pick: ZverevUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Fritz the favorite; our numbers say Zverev.

Win probability: 52% Zverev · Most likely score: 3-0 (24%)

Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz meet in the quarterfinal at Wimbledon on Wednesday. Alexander Zverev brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Taylor Fritz has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.

The ledger favors Taylor Fritz, 11-5 across their 16 meetings with Alexander Zverev. On grass specifically it reads 3-2 Fritz — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Zverev comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zverev fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Arthur Fery vs. Flavio Cobolli

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 54% on Arthur Fery, who won 6-4 7-6 6-0.

Pick: FeryUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Cobolli the favorite; our numbers say Fery.

Win probability: 54% Fery · Most likely score: 3-2 (21%) · Could go long: 40% chance of a full five sets

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Arthur Fery goes up against Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon quarterfinal. Arthur Fery is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Flavio Cobolli has won 6 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Arthur Fery has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Flavio Cobolli.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fery fractionally more likely to land the big points.

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Updated Jul 7, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.

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