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Wimbledon predictions, July 8, 2026: Mertens vs. Noskova, Paolini vs. Kostyuk

By The Maiden Desk · July 8, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Wimbledon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elise Mertens against Linda Noskova in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Noskova over Mertens, Kostyuk over Paolini, Zverev over Fritz, Fery over Cobolli. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Kostyuk over Paolini — the ratings disagree with us there.

Yesterday’s results: 2-2

July 7, 2026 card →
  • ✓ Pick rightSinner at 67% won 7-5 7-6 6-3 — exact score called
  • ✓ Pick rightZverev at 65% won 6-4 7-5 3-6 7-6
  • ✗ Pick wrongPegula at 51% lost 6-4 3-6 3-6
  • ✗ Pick wrongOsaka at 53% lost 6-7 4-6

1 exact set-score call · Every pick graded in public — the full ledger lives on the track record.

Elise Mertens vs. Linda Noskova

Wednesday's Wimbledon quarterfinal pits Elise Mertens against Linda Noskova on grass. Linda Noskova has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Elise Mertens has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Noskova has been winning 69.4% of first-serve points to Mertens's 63.6%, and on grass that gap compounds fast. Mertens comes in off a compressed schedule; Noskova comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Noskova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Noskova

Win probability: 65% Noskova · Most likely score: 2-0 (42%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Linda Noskova was our 65% pick, and won 6-3 7-5.

Jasmine Paolini vs. Marta Kostyuk

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon quarterfinal. Marta Kostyuk is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Jasmine Paolini brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.

Jasmine Paolini has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Marta Kostyuk.

Hold strength tells the story — 64.1% versus 60.1% on first-serve points in Kostyuk's favor. Paolini comes in off a compressed schedule; Kostyuk comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kostyuk fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: KostyukUpset call

Upset call — the ratings lean Paolini; our numbers say Kostyuk.

Win probability: 58% Kostyuk · Most likely score: 2-0 (40%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Marta Kostyuk was our 58% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.

Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz

Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz meet in the quarterfinal at Wimbledon on Wednesday. Alexander Zverev brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Taylor Fritz has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall.

The ledger favors Taylor Fritz, 11-5 across their 16 meetings with Alexander Zverev. On grass specifically it reads 3-2 Fritz — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Zverev comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Zverev fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: ZverevUpset call

Upset call — the ratings lean Fritz; our numbers say Zverev.

Win probability: 52% Zverev · Most likely score: 3-0 (24%)

✓ Pick rightGraded: correct. Our final pre-match number was 52% on Alexander Zverev, and Alexander Zverev won 6-4 6-4 6-2.

Arthur Fery vs. Flavio Cobolli

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Arthur Fery goes up against Flavio Cobolli in the Wimbledon quarterfinal. Arthur Fery is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Flavio Cobolli has won 6 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall.

Arthur Fery has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Flavio Cobolli.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fery fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: FeryUpset call

Upset call — the ratings lean Cobolli; our numbers say Fery.

Win probability: 54% Fery · Most likely score: 3-2 (21%) · Could go long: 40% chance of a full five sets

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 54% on Arthur Fery, who won 6-4 7-6 6-0.

Updated Jul 7, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.

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