3 matches are on Friday's card at Trieste, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hugo Dellien against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Izquierdo over Dellien, Neumayer over Squire, Dodig over Brancaccio.
The boldest call on the card: Izquierdo over Dellien — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 58% Neumayer · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
Henri Squire and Lukas Neumayer meet in the quarterfinal at Trieste on Friday. Lukas Neumayer has won 8 of the last 10. Henri Squire has won 6 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Lukas Neumayer is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Neumayer around 58%. Little separates them; Neumayer gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 57% Dodig · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%) · Could go long: 50% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Matej Dodig goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Trieste quarterfinal. Matej Dodig has won 7 of the last 10. Raul Brancaccio comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.4% versus 67.4% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dodig is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: IzquierdoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Dellien the favorite; our numbers say Izquierdo.
Win probability: 53% Izquierdo · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Hugo Dellien goes up against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo in the Trieste quarterfinal. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Hugo Dellien is 6-4 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Dellien comes in off a compressed schedule; Izquierdo comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Izquierdo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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