3 matches are on Friday's card at Trieste, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hugo Dellien against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Izquierdo over Dellien, Neumayer over Squire, Dodig over Brancaccio. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Izquierdo over Dellien — the market disagrees with us there.
Henri Squire and Lukas Neumayer meet in the quarterfinal at Trieste on Friday. Lukas Neumayer has won 8 of the last 10. Henri Squire has won 6 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Lukas Neumayer is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Neumayer around 58%. Little separates them; Neumayer gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 58% Neumayer · Most likely score: 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Matej Dodig goes up against Raul Brancaccio in the Trieste quarterfinal. Matej Dodig has won 7 of the last 10. Raul Brancaccio comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.4% versus 67.4% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dodig is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 57% Dodig · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%) · Could go long: 50% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Hugo Dellien goes up against Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo in the Trieste quarterfinal. Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Hugo Dellien is 6-4 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Dellien comes in off a compressed schedule; Izquierdo comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Izquierdo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: IzquierdoUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Dellien the favorite; our numbers say Izquierdo.
Win probability: 53% Izquierdo · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)