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Bastad Predictions & Picks — July 11, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 11, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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One match is on Saturday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Paula Badosa against Simona Waltert in the final. Our calls: Badosa over Waltert. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

Paula Badosa vs. Simona Waltert

The Bastad title is on the line on Saturday, when Paula Badosa meets Simona Waltert. Paula Badosa is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Simona Waltert brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Badosa's 65.2% behind the first serve (against 59.3% for Waltert) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Badosa fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Badosa

Win probability: 52% Badosa · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Paula Badosa was our 52% pick, and won 7-5 7-5.

Updated Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.