Maiden.bet

Bastad Predictions & Picks — July 11, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 11, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

Share card

One match is on Saturday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Paula Badosa against Simona Waltert in the final. Our calls: Badosa over Waltert.

Paula Badosa vs. Simona Waltert

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Paula Badosa was our 52% pick, and won 7-5 7-5.

Pick: Badosa

Win probability: 52% Badosa · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)

The Bastad title is on the line on Saturday, when Paula Badosa meets Simona Waltert. Paula Badosa is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Simona Waltert brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Badosa's 65.2% behind the first serve (against 59.3% for Waltert) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Badosa fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Get the free ebook + tomorrow's picks

Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.

Updated Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.