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Newport Predictions & Picks — July 11, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 11, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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4 matches are on Saturday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mananchaya Sawangkaew against Tatjana Maria in the semifinal. Our calls: Maria over Sawangkaew, Galarneau over Fearnley, Walton over Michelsen, Volynets over Minnen.

The boldest call on the card: Galarneau over Fearnley — the market disagrees with us there.

Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs. Tatjana Maria

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Tatjana Maria at 52% before the match, and Tatjana Maria won 6-2 6-1.

Pick: Maria

Win probability: 52% Maria · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Mananchaya Sawangkaew goes up against Tatjana Maria in the Newport semifinal. Tatjana Maria has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Tatjana Maria is clearly higher-rated on grass — our number puts Maria around 52%. Sawangkaew comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Maria gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Greet Minnen vs. Katie Volynets

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Katie Volynets was our 53% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.

Pick: Volynets

Win probability: 53% Volynets · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)

Saturday's Newport semifinal pits Greet Minnen against Katie Volynets on grass. Katie Volynets brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Greet Minnen has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Minnen comes in off a compressed schedule; Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Volynets gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Adam Walton vs. Alex Michelsen

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Adam Walton, who won 7-6 6-4.

Pick: WaltonUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Michelsen the favorite; our numbers say Walton.

Win probability: 50% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Adam Walton goes up against Alex Michelsen in the Newport semifinal. Adam Walton is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Walton fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Alexis Galarneau vs. Jacob Fearnley

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Alexis Galarneau at 50%, but Jacob Fearnley won 6-7 6-3 6-4.

Pick: GalarneauUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Fearnley the favorite; our numbers say Galarneau.

Win probability: 50% Galarneau · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexis Galarneau goes up against Jacob Fearnley in the Newport semifinal. Alexis Galarneau is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play. Jacob Fearnley is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule; Fearnley comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Galarneau gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Jul 11, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.