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Newport Predictions & Picks — July 11, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 11, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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4 matches are on Saturday's card at Newport, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mananchaya Sawangkaew against Tatjana Maria in the semifinal. Our calls: Maria over Sawangkaew, Galarneau over Fearnley, Walton over Michelsen, Volynets over Minnen. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Galarneau over Fearnley — the market disagrees with us there.

Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs. Tatjana Maria

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Mananchaya Sawangkaew goes up against Tatjana Maria in the Newport semifinal. Tatjana Maria has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Mananchaya Sawangkaew is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Sawangkaew comes in off a compressed schedule; Maria comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Maria gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Maria

Win probability: 52% Maria · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Tatjana Maria at 52% before the match, and Tatjana Maria won 6-2 6-1.

Greet Minnen vs. Katie Volynets

Saturday's Newport semifinal pits Greet Minnen against Katie Volynets on grass. Katie Volynets brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten. Greet Minnen has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Minnen comes in off a compressed schedule; Volynets comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Volynets gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Volynets

Win probability: 53% Volynets · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)

✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Katie Volynets was our 53% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.

Adam Walton vs. Alex Michelsen

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Adam Walton goes up against Alex Michelsen in the Newport semifinal. Adam Walton is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Walton comes in off a compressed schedule; Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Walton fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: WaltonUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Michelsen the favorite; our numbers say Walton.

Win probability: 50% Walton · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Adam Walton, who won 7-6 6-4.

Alexis Galarneau vs. Jacob Fearnley

A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexis Galarneau goes up against Jacob Fearnley in the Newport semifinal. Alexis Galarneau is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play. Jacob Fearnley is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Galarneau comes in off a compressed schedule; Fearnley comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Galarneau gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: GalarneauUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Fearnley the favorite; our numbers say Galarneau.

Win probability: 50% Galarneau · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets

✗ Pick wrongMissed it — and it stays on the record. We had Alexis Galarneau at 50%, but Jacob Fearnley won 6-7 6-3 6-4.

Updated Jul 11, 2026, 4:01 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.