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Trieste Predictions & Picks — July 12, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 12, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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One match is on Sunday's card at Trieste, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hugo Dellien against Matej Dodig in the final. Our calls: Dodig over Dellien. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Dodig over Dellien — the market disagrees with us there.

Hugo Dellien vs. Matej Dodig

Sunday brings the Trieste final: Hugo Dellien against Matej Dodig. Matej Dodig brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Hugo Dellien is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Dodig's 70.5% behind the first serve (against 62.5% for Dellien) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Dellien comes in off a compressed schedule; Dodig comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Dodig fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: DodigUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Dellien the favorite; our numbers say Dodig.

Win probability: 53% Dodig · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 48% chance of a full three sets

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Matej Dodig at 53% lost to Hugo Dellien (5-7 6-4 6-2). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 11, 2026, 10:30 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.