Tuesday's Rome round of 32 pits Darja Semenistaja against Julia Riera on clay. Darja Semenistaja is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Julia Riera is rolling — 4 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Semenistaja is exactly that — a lean.