Tennis predictions, July 14, 2026: Buse vs. Tsitsipas, Kalinina vs. Badosa
By The Maiden Desk · July 14, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
Share card
34 matches are on Tuesday's card across 5 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ignacio Buse against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the round of 32. Our calls: Tsitsipas over Buse, Badosa over Kalinina, Blockx over Droguet, Cecchinato over Burruchaga, Busta over Dodig, Tirante over Ofner, and 28 more.
The boldest call on the card: Uchijima over Avanesyan — the market disagrees with us there.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Stefanos Tsitsipas was our 53% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 53% Tsitsipas · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ignacio Buse goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Gstaad round of 32. Stefanos Tsitsipas limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Ignacio Buse has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
The ledger favors Ignacio Buse, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas's 75% behind the first serve (against 70.4% for Buse) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tsitsipas fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Paula Badosa was our 53% pick, and won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 53% Badosa · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Iasi round of 32 pits Anhelina Kalinina against Paula Badosa on clay. Paula Badosa has won 5 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Anhelina Kalinina limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Badosa's 65.2% behind the first serve (against 60.8% for Kalinina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Badosa is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Alexander Blockx at 61%, but Titouan Droguet won 3-6 6-2 6-0.
Pick: Blockx
Win probability: 61% Blockx · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
Alexander Blockx and Titouan Droguet meet in the round of 32 at Umag on Tuesday. Alexander Blockx is 6-4 across recent matches. Titouan Droguet brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
The ledger favors Alexander Blockx, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Titouan Droguet.
The serve is where this match separates: Blockx has been winning 77.3% of first-serve points to Droguet's 73.8%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Blockx should have enough here, though Droguet has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 53% on Marco Cecchinato; Roman Andres Burruchaga won 6-1 6-4.
Pick: CecchinatoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Burruchaga the favorite; our numbers say Cecchinato.
Win probability: 53% Cecchinato · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)
Marco Cecchinato and Roman Andres Burruchaga meet in the round of 32 at Umag on Tuesday. Marco Cecchinato comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Roman Andres Burruchaga has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
The rivalry is dead level: 1-1 across 2 matches. On clay they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cecchinato is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Pablo Carreno Busta, who won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Busta
Win probability: 55% Busta · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Matej Dodig and Pablo Carreno Busta meet in the round of 32 at Umag on Tuesday. Pablo Carreno Busta has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Matej Dodig is 7-3 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Pablo Carreno Busta simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Busta fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Thiago Agustin Tirante, who won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Tirante
Win probability: 57% Tirante · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Sebastian Ofner goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad round of 32. Thiago Agustin Tirante limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Sebastian Ofner comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Thiago Agustin Tirante simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tirante is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Katarzyna Kawa was our 51% pick, and won 6-1 6-4.
Pick: KawaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Waltert the favorite; our numbers say Kawa.
Win probability: 51% Kawa · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%) · Could go long: 43% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Katarzyna Kawa goes up against Simona Waltert in the Iasi round of 32. Katarzyna Kawa limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Simona Waltert has won 5 of the last 10.
Simona Waltert leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Waltert — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kawa is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Daniel Altmaier, who won 6-2 7-5.
Pick: Altmaier
Win probability: 55% Altmaier · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Daniel Altmaier against Hugo Gaston on clay. Daniel Altmaier is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Hugo Gaston is rolling — 4 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Nothing separates them historically — the head-to-head sits at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Gaston — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Altmaier has been winning 71.1% of first-serve points to Gaston's 65.7%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Altmaier gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 50% on Alexander Shevchenko, who won 3-6 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Shevchenko
Win probability: 50% Shevchenko · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
Alexander Shevchenko and Alexandre Muller meet in the round of 32 at Gstaad on Tuesday. Alexander Shevchenko is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Alexandre Muller limps in on a 10-match losing skid, just 0 wins in 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shevchenko is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Botic Van De Zandschulp at 54% before the match, and Botic Van De Zandschulp won 7-6 6-4.
Pick: Zandschulp
Win probability: 54% Zandschulp · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Botic Van De Zandschulp goes up against Taro Daniel in the Bastad round of 32. Botic Van De Zandschulp has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Taro Daniel comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Zandschulp's 72.3% behind the first serve (against 66.7% for Daniel) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Zandschulp gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Facundo Diaz Acosta at 61%, but Lautaro Midon won 3-6 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Acosta
Win probability: 61% Acosta · Most likely score: 2-0 (37%)
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Facundo Diaz Acosta against Lautaro Midon on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta has won 8 of the last 10. Lautaro Midon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.4% versus 64.1% on first-serve points in Acosta's favor. Acosta should have enough here, though Midon has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Andrea Pellegrino was our 54% pick, and won 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Pellegrino
Win probability: 54% Pellegrino · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 50% chance of a full three sets
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Andrea Pellegrino against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer on clay. Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has dropped 5 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Andrea Pellegrino is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Pellegrino around 54%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Pellegrino is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Panna Udvardy was our 56% pick, and won 6-3 4-6 6-3.
Pick: Udvardy
Win probability: 56% Udvardy · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Leyre Romero Gormaz goes up against Panna Udvardy in the Iasi round of 32. Panna Udvardy has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Leyre Romero Gormaz is 7-3 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Leyre Romero Gormaz, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Panna Udvardy.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Udvardy gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alex Molcan at 69% before the match, and Alex Molcan won 6-4 7-5.
Pick: Molcan
Win probability: 69% Molcan · Most likely score: 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alex Molcan goes up against Valentin Royer in the Umag round of 32. Alex Molcan has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Valentin Royer has won 5 of the last 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Molcan has been winning 66.2% of first-serve points to Royer's 25.5%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Molcan — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jaime Faria at 55% before the match, and Jaime Faria won 6-7 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Faria
Win probability: 55% Faria · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Gstaad round of 32 pits Jaime Faria against Stan Wawrinka on clay. Jaime Faria is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Stan Wawrinka has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Jaime Faria simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Faria fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Jan Choinski at 57%, but Nikoloz Basilashvili won 6-4 7-6.
Pick: Choinski
Win probability: 57% Choinski · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Jan Choinski goes up against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Bastad round of 32. Jan Choinski is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Nikoloz Basilashvili is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10).
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Jan Choinski is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Choinski around 57%. Little separates them; Choinski gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 61% on Quentin Halys, who won 6-3 3-6 7-6.
Pick: Halys
Win probability: 61% Halys · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
Federico Cina and Quentin Halys meet in the round of 32 at Gstaad on Tuesday. Quentin Halys is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Federico Cina limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.8% versus 68.6% on first-serve points in Halys's favor. The edge belongs to Halys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Emiliana Arango at 52%, but Tamara Zidansek won 5-7 6-2 6-3.
Pick: Arango
Win probability: 52% Arango · Most likely score: 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Emiliana Arango goes up against Tamara Zidansek in the Iasi round of 32. Emiliana Arango has won 4 of the last 10. Tamara Zidansek is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Arango is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 58% before the match, and Juan Manuel Cerundolo won 4-6 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 58% Cerundolo · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Gstaad round of 32 pits Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Zdenek Kolar on clay. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten. Zdenek Kolar is 5-5 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Cerundolo around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cerundolo is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Mayar Sherif at 56% before the match, and Mayar Sherif won 6-2 6-0.
Pick: Sherif
Win probability: 56% Sherif · Most likely score: 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Dalma Galfi goes up against Mayar Sherif in the Iasi round of 32. Mayar Sherif has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Dalma Galfi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (2 of the last 10).
The ledger favors Mayar Sherif, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Dalma Galfi. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Sherif — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sherif fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Win probability: 58% Marozsan · Most likely score: 2-0 (36%)
Fabian Marozsan and Juan Carlos Prado Angelo meet in the round of 32 at Umag on Tuesday. Fabian Marozsan limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo has dropped 6 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Marozsan has been winning 69% of first-serve points to Angelo's 63.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Marozsan gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Win probability: 58% Cristian · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Jaqueline Cristian goes up against Leolia Jeanjean in the Iasi round of 32. Jaqueline Cristian is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Leolia Jeanjean comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cristian is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Camilo Ugo Carabelli at 58% before the match, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 6-7 7-6 6-3.
Pick: Carabelli
Win probability: 58% Carabelli · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Umag round of 32 pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Marko Topo on clay. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 6-4 across recent matches. Marko Topo is 3-7 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Carabelli gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Elena Gabriela Ruse at 52%, but Kaitlin Quevedo won 6-3 6-1.
Pick: Ruse
Win probability: 52% Ruse · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
Tuesday's Iasi round of 32 pits Elena Gabriela Ruse against Kaitlin Quevedo on clay. Elena Gabriela Ruse has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Kaitlin Quevedo is 5-5 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Ruse has been winning 63.3% of first-serve points to Quevedo's 59.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ruse is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 60% on Grigor Dimitrov, who won 7-6 1-6 6-4.
Pick: Dimitrov
Win probability: 60% Dimitrov · Most likely score: 2-0 (39%)
Tuesday's Bastad round of 32 pits Dalibor Svrcina against Grigor Dimitrov on clay. Grigor Dimitrov is 6-4 across recent matches. Dalibor Svrcina is 5-5 across recent matches.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.6% versus 62% on first-serve points in Dimitrov's favor. The edge belongs to Dimitrov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 57% on Aliaksandra Sasnovich, who won 3-6 6-2 6-2.
Pick: Sasnovich
Win probability: 57% Sasnovich · Most likely score: 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Aliaksandra Sasnovich goes up against Anna Blinkova in the Athens (Greece) round of 32. Aliaksandra Sasnovich comes in at 2 wins from the last ten. Anna Blinkova has won 3 of the last 10.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich leads the head-to-head 4-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Sasnovich — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Sasnovich gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Moyuka Uchijima at 54%, but Elina Avanesyan won 6-2 6-4.
Pick: UchijimaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Avanesyan the favorite; our numbers say Uchijima.
Win probability: 54% Uchijima · Most likely score: 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Elina Avanesyan goes up against Moyuka Uchijima in the Iasi round of 32. Moyuka Uchijima comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Elina Avanesyan is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
Elina Avanesyan leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Uchijima's 63.4% behind the first serve (against 57.6% for Avanesyan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Uchijima fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Barbora Krejcikova was our 68% pick, and won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Krejcikova
Win probability: 68% Krejcikova · Most likely score: 2-0 (49%)
Tuesday's Athens (Greece) round of 32 pits Barbora Krejcikova against Viktoriya Tomova on hard. Barbora Krejcikova is 8-2 across recent matches. Viktoriya Tomova is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Krejcikova has been winning 65.9% of first-serve points to Tomova's 57%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Krejcikova should have enough here, though Tomova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Yannick Hanfmann at 68% before the match, and Yannick Hanfmann won 7-6 6-1.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 68% Hanfmann · Most likely score: 2-0 (46%)
Pedro Martinez and Yannick Hanfmann meet in the round of 32 at Gstaad on Tuesday. Yannick Hanfmann limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Pedro Martinez is 3-7 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Yannick Hanfmann, 2-1 across their 3 meetings with Pedro Martinez. On clay they're dead even at 1-1 — worth more than the overall number this week.
The serve is where this match separates: Hanfmann has been winning 70.2% of first-serve points to Martinez's 64.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Hanfmann.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Ann Li was our 64% pick, and won 6-2 6-1.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 64% Li · Most likely score: 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ann Li goes up against Maria Timofeeva in the Athens (Greece) round of 32. Ann Li limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Maria Timofeeva limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
Ann Li has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Maria Timofeeva. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Li — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.9% versus 58.9% on first-serve points in Li's favor. The edge belongs to Li — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Stefano Travaglia was our 54% pick, and won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: TravagliaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Krumich the favorite; our numbers say Travaglia.
Win probability: 54% Travaglia · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
Martin Krumich and Stefano Travaglia meet in the round of 32 at Bastad on Tuesday. Stefano Travaglia limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Martin Krumich has won 4 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Travaglia fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 66% on Daniel Vallejo, who won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 66% Vallejo · Most likely score: 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Vallejo goes up against Miguel Damas in the Bastad round of 32. Daniel Vallejo is 5-5 across recent matches. Miguel Damas has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Vallejo has been winning 66.5% of first-serve points to Damas's 61.5%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Vallejo should have enough here, though Damas has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Clara Tauson was our 66% pick, and won 7-5 6-4.
Pick: Tauson
Win probability: 66% Tauson · Most likely score: 2-0 (47%)
Tuesday's Athens (Greece) round of 32 pits Clara Tauson against Nao Hibino on hard. Clara Tauson is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (2 of the last 10). Nao Hibino limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Clara Tauson leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Tauson — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.8% versus 60.6% on first-serve points in Tauson's favor. The edge belongs to Tauson — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Rebeka Masarova at 64% lost to Carole Monnet (4-6 6-2 7-6).
Pick: Masarova
Win probability: 64% Masarova · Most likely score: 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Carole Monnet goes up against Rebeka Masarova in the Athens (Greece) round of 32. Rebeka Masarova is 6-4 across recent matches. Carole Monnet has won 4 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Masarova's 68.2% behind the first serve (against 57.4% for Monnet) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Masarova.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.