3 matches are on Thursday's card at Athens (Greece), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Tereza Valentova in the round of 16. Our calls: Valentova over Sasnovich, Krejcikova over Monnet, Li over Korneeva. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
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Thursday's Athens (Greece) round of 16 pits Barbora Krejcikova against Carole Monnet on hard. Barbora Krejcikova comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Carole Monnet is 4-6 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.9% versus 57.4% on first-serve points in Krejcikova's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Krejcikova.
Pick: Krejcikova
Win probability: 70% Krejcikova · Most likely score: 2-0 (50%)
Thursday's Athens (Greece) round of 16 pits Alina Korneeva against Ann Li on hard. Ann Li has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Alina Korneeva is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Ann Li is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Li around 58%. Little separates them; Li gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 58% Li · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aliaksandra Sasnovich goes up against Tereza Valentova in the Athens (Greece) round of 16. Tereza Valentova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Aliaksandra Sasnovich is 2-8 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Valentova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Valentova
Win probability: 52% Valentova · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)