Tennis predictions, July 16, 2026: Ruud vs. Faria, Pellegrino vs. Rublev

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Jaime Faria in the Gstaad round of 16. Casper Ruud has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Jaime Faria has won 6 of the last 10.

The ledger favors Casper Ruud, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jaime Faria.

Casper Ruud simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Ruud should have enough here, though Faria has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Andrea Pellegrino goes up against Andrey Rublev in the Bastad round of 16. Andrey Rublev is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 66.8% for Pellegrino) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Pellegrino comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Alex Molcan in the Umag quarterfinal. Alex Molcan is 6-4 across recent matches. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is 9-1 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Molcan gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Umag quarterfinal pits Daniel Merida Aguilar against Titouan Droguet on clay. Titouan Droguet comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Daniel Merida Aguilar, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Titouan Droguet. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Aguilar — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 73.5% versus 65.1% on first-serve points in Droguet's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Droguet fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Umag quarterfinal pits Damir Dzumhur against Matteo Arnaldi on clay. Matteo Arnaldi is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (8 of the last 10). Damir Dzumhur comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Matteo Arnaldi has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Damir Dzumhur. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Arnaldi — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Arnaldi has been winning 70.4% of first-serve points to Dzumhur's 65.4%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Arnaldi should have enough here, though Dzumhur has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Camilo Ugo Carabelli goes up against Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Umag quarterfinal. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 7-3 across recent matches. Roman Andres Burruchaga has won 2 of the last 10.

Roman Andres Burruchaga leads the head-to-head 2-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Burruchaga — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Carabelli is exactly that — a lean.

Katarzyna Kawa and Panna Udvardy meet in the round of 16 at Iasi on Thursday. Panna Udvardy has won 4 of the last 10. Katarzyna Kawa comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Panna Udvardy has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 3 against Katarzyna Kawa. On clay specifically it reads 2-1 Udvardy — worth more than the overall number this week.

Udvardy's 62.1% behind the first serve (against 57.7% for Kawa) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Udvardy is exactly that — a lean.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Miomir Kecmanovic meet in the round of 16 at Gstaad on Thursday. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10). Miomir Kecmanovic is 5-5 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Juan Manuel Cerundolo, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Miomir Kecmanovic. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Cerundolo around 53%. Cerundolo comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Cerundolo gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jerome Kym goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Gstaad round of 16. Stefanos Tsitsipas has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Jerome Kym comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Stefanos Tsitsipas simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Tsitsipas gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jesper De Jong goes up against Sebastian Baez in the Bastad round of 16. Jesper De Jong comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Sebastian Baez is 6-4 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Jong has been winning 72.6% of first-serve points to Baez's 65.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Jong fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aliaksandra Sasnovich goes up against Tereza Valentova in the Athens (Greece) round of 16. Tereza Valentova limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Aliaksandra Sasnovich is 2-8 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Valentova fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Iasi round of 16 pits Kaitlin Quevedo against Mayar Sherif on clay. Mayar Sherif is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Kaitlin Quevedo is 5-5 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Mayar Sherif is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Sherif around 52%. Quevedo comes in off a compressed schedule; Sherif comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sherif fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Lautaro Midon in the Bastad round of 16. Alejandro Tabilo has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Lautaro Midon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Alejandro Tabilo, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Lautaro Midon. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Tabilo — worth more than the overall number this week.

The serve is where this match separates: Tabilo has been winning 71% of first-serve points to Midon's 64.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Midon comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tabilo.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Nikoloz Basilashvili goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad round of 16. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 6 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 7 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Thiago Agustin Tirante is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Tirante around 63%. The edge belongs to Tirante — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Thursday's Athens (Greece) round of 16 pits Barbora Krejcikova against Carole Monnet on hard. Barbora Krejcikova comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Carole Monnet is 4-6 across recent matches.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 65.9% versus 57.4% on first-serve points in Krejcikova's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Krejcikova.

Thursday's Athens (Greece) round of 16 pits Alina Korneeva against Ann Li on hard. Ann Li has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Alina Korneeva is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Ann Li is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Li around 58%. Little separates them; Li gets the nod on the finest of margins.