5 matches are on Thursday's card at Gstaad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Bublik against Quentin Halys in the round of 16. Our calls: Bublik over Halys, Ruud over Faria, Tsitsipas over Kym, Cerundolo over Kecmanovic, Stricker over Shevchenko.
Pick: Ruud
Win probability: 60% Ruud · Most likely score: 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Jaime Faria in the Gstaad round of 16. Casper Ruud has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Jaime Faria has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Casper Ruud, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jaime Faria.
Casper Ruud simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Ruud should have enough here, though Faria has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Stricker
Win probability: 55% Stricker · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
Friday's Gstaad round of 16 pits Alexander Shevchenko against Dominic Stricker on clay. Dominic Stricker comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alexander Shevchenko comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Stricker has been winning 75.6% of first-serve points to Shevchenko's 70.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Stricker fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 53% Cerundolo · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Miomir Kecmanovic meet in the round of 16 at Gstaad on Thursday. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10). Miomir Kecmanovic is 5-5 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Juan Manuel Cerundolo, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Miomir Kecmanovic. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Cerundolo around 53%. Cerundolo comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Cerundolo gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bublik
Win probability: 51% Bublik · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Quentin Halys in the Gstaad round of 16. Alexander Bublik has won 6 of the last 10. Quentin Halys comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Quentin Halys has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Alexander Bublik. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Halys — worth more than the overall number this week.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Bublik gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tsitsipas
Win probability: 55% Tsitsipas · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jerome Kym goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Gstaad round of 16. Stefanos Tsitsipas has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Jerome Kym comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Stefanos Tsitsipas simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Tsitsipas gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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