4 matches are on Friday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alejandro Tabilo against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Tirante over Tabilo, Darderi over Borges, Rublev over Baez, Vallejo over Travaglia. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Tirante over Tabilo — the market disagrees with us there.
Daniel Vallejo and Stefano Travaglia meet in the quarterfinal at Bastad on Friday. Daniel Vallejo is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Stefano Travaglia is 6-4 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Daniel Vallejo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vallejo is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 54% Vallejo · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Luciano Darderi and Nuno Borges meet in the quarterfinal at Bastad on Friday. Luciano Darderi is 5-5 across recent matches. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Nuno Borges, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Luciano Darderi.
Luciano Darderi simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Darderi is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 54% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Friday's Bastad quarterfinal pits Andrey Rublev against Sebastian Baez on clay. Andrey Rublev has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sebastian Baez has won 6 of the last 10.
Sebastian Baez has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Andrey Rublev. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Baez — worth more than the overall number this week.
Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 65.1% for Baez) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Rublev comes in off a compressed schedule; Baez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 58% Rublev · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad quarterfinal. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 6 of the last 10. Alejandro Tabilo limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The ledger favors Alejandro Tabilo, 4-1 across their 5 meetings with Thiago Agustin Tirante. On clay specifically it reads 4-0 Tabilo — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Tabilo comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tirante fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: TiranteUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Tabilo the favorite; our numbers say Tirante.
Win probability: 51% Tirante · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets