4 matches are on Friday's card at Bastad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Luciano Darderi against Nuno Borges in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Darderi over Borges, Rublev over Baez, Tirante over Tabilo, Vallejo over Travaglia.
The boldest call on the card: Tirante over Tabilo — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Vallejo
Win probability: 54% Vallejo · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Daniel Vallejo and Stefano Travaglia meet in the quarterfinal at Bastad on Friday. Daniel Vallejo is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play. Stefano Travaglia is 6-4 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Daniel Vallejo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vallejo is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 54% Darderi · Most likely score: 2-0 (32%)
Luciano Darderi and Nuno Borges meet in the quarterfinal at Bastad on Friday. Luciano Darderi is 5-5 across recent matches. Nuno Borges has won 6 of the last 10.
The ledger favors Nuno Borges, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Luciano Darderi.
Luciano Darderi simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Darderi is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 58% Rublev · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)
Friday's Bastad quarterfinal pits Andrey Rublev against Sebastian Baez on clay. Andrey Rublev has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sebastian Baez has won 6 of the last 10.
Sebastian Baez has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Andrey Rublev. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Baez — worth more than the overall number this week.
Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 65.1% for Baez) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Rublev comes in off a compressed schedule; Baez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Rublev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: TiranteUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Tabilo the favorite; our numbers say Tirante.
Win probability: 51% Tirante · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 47% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Bastad quarterfinal. Thiago Agustin Tirante has won 6 of the last 10. Alejandro Tabilo limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The ledger favors Alejandro Tabilo, 4-1 across their 5 meetings with Thiago Agustin Tirante. On clay specifically it reads 4-0 Tabilo — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Tabilo comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tirante fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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