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Gstaad Predictions & Picks — July 17, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 17, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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5 matches are on Friday's card at Gstaad, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Casper Ruud against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Ruud over Cerundolo, Collignon over Vacherot, Rinderknech over Tsitsipas, Bublik over Halys, Stricker over Shevchenko. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

Raphael Collignon vs. Valentin Vacherot

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Raphael Collignon goes up against Valentin Vacherot in the Gstaad quarterfinal. Raphael Collignon comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Valentin Vacherot is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Collignon is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Collignon

Win probability: 50% Collignon · Most likely score: 2-0 (26%) · Could go long: 49% chance of a full three sets

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Raphael Collignon at 50% before the match, and Raphael Collignon won 7-6 4-6 7-5.

Casper Ruud vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Casper Ruud goes up against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Gstaad quarterfinal. Casper Ruud has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Juan Manuel Cerundolo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo has had the better of this rivalry, winning 2 of 2 against Casper Ruud. On clay specifically it reads 2-0 Cerundolo — worth more than the overall number this week.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ruud is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Ruud

Win probability: 60% Ruud · Most likely score: 2-0 (38%)

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 60% on Casper Ruud; Juan Manuel Cerundolo won 3-6 7-5 6-2.

Arthur Rinderknech vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Gstaad quarterfinal. Arthur Rinderknech is 5-5 across recent matches. Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 4 of the last 10.

Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head 2-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Rinderknech gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Rinderknech

Win probability: 50% Rinderknech · Most likely score: 2-0 (29%)

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 50% on Arthur Rinderknech; Stefanos Tsitsipas won 6-3 3-6 6-3.

Alexander Shevchenko vs. Dominic Stricker

Friday's Gstaad round of 16 pits Alexander Shevchenko against Dominic Stricker on clay. Dominic Stricker comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alexander Shevchenko comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The serve is where this match separates: Stricker has been winning 75.6% of first-serve points to Shevchenko's 70.1%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Stricker fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Stricker

Win probability: 55% Stricker · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Dominic Stricker at 55% lost to Alexander Shevchenko (7-6 6-2). It stays up, like every other miss.

Alexander Bublik vs. Quentin Halys

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Quentin Halys in the Gstaad round of 16. Alexander Bublik has won 6 of the last 10. Quentin Halys comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Bublik gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Bublik

Win probability: 51% Bublik · Most likely score: 2-0 (31%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Alexander Bublik at 51% lost to Quentin Halys (6-7 6-4 7-6). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 16, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.