2 matches are on Friday's card at Rome, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francesca Jones against Noma Noha Akugue in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Jones over Akugue, Riera over Brancaccio. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
Francesca Jones and Noma Noha Akugue meet in the quarterfinal at Rome on Friday. Francesca Jones comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Noma Noha Akugue has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Francesca Jones is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Jones around 51%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jones is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Jones
Win probability: 51% Jones · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 45% chance of a full three sets
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Julia Riera goes up against Nuria Brancaccio in the Rome quarterfinal. Julia Riera brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Nuria Brancaccio has won 3 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Hold strength tells the story — 62.4% versus 55.2% on first-serve points in Riera's favor. Riera comes in off a compressed schedule; Brancaccio comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Riera gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Riera
Win probability: 59% Riera · Most likely score: 2-0 (37%)