2 matches are on Friday's card at Rome, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francesca Jones against Noma Noha Akugue in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Jones over Akugue, Riera over Brancaccio.
Pick: Jones
Win probability: 51% Jones · Most likely score: 2-0 (28%) · Could go long: 45% chance of a full three sets
Francesca Jones and Noma Noha Akugue meet in the quarterfinal at Rome on Friday. Francesca Jones comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Noma Noha Akugue has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Francesca Jones is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Jones around 51%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Jones is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Riera
Win probability: 59% Riera · Most likely score: 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Julia Riera goes up against Nuria Brancaccio in the Rome quarterfinal. Julia Riera brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Nuria Brancaccio has won 3 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Hold strength tells the story — 62.4% versus 55.2% on first-serve points in Riera's favor. Riera comes in off a compressed schedule; Brancaccio comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Riera gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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