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Lincoln Predictions & Picks — July 19, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 19, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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2 matches are on Sunday's card at Lincoln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Bernard Tomic against Mark Lajal in the final. Our calls: Tomic over Lajal, Bu over Lajal. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

The boldest call on the card: Tomic over Lajal — the market disagrees with us there.

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Mark Lajal vs. Y. Bu

Sunday's Lincoln semifinal pits Mark Lajal against Y. Bu on hard. Y. Bu is 5-5 across recent matches. Mark Lajal comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Lajal comes in off a compressed schedule; Bu comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bu is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: BuUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Lajal the favorite; our numbers say Bu.

Win probability: 50% Bu · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Y. Bu at 50% lost to Mark Lajal (2-6 6-1 7-6). It stays up, like every other miss.

Bernard Tomic vs. Mark Lajal

It all comes down to Sunday at Lincoln, where Bernard Tomic faces Mark Lajal for the trophy. Bernard Tomic has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Mark Lajal comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule; Lajal comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tomic fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: TomicUpset call

Upset call — the market makes Lajal the favorite; our numbers say Tomic.

Win probability: 50% Tomic · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Bernard Tomic at 50% before the match, and Bernard Tomic won 4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3).

Updated Jul 18, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.