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Lincoln Predictions & Picks — July 19, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 19, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Sunday's card at Lincoln, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mark Lajal against Y. Bu in the semifinal. Our calls: Bu over Lajal, Tomic over Lajal.

The boldest call on the card: Tomic over Lajal — the market disagrees with us there.

Mark Lajal vs. Y. Bu

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Y. Bu at 50% lost to Mark Lajal (2-6 6-1 7-6).

Pick: BuUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Lajal the favorite; our numbers say Bu.

Win probability: 50% Bu · Most likely score: 2-1 (26%) · Could go long: 52% chance of a full three sets

Sunday's Lincoln semifinal pits Mark Lajal against Y. Bu on hard. Y. Bu is 5-5 across recent matches. Mark Lajal comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Lajal comes in off a compressed schedule; Bu comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bu is exactly that — a lean.

Bernard Tomic vs. Mark Lajal

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Bernard Tomic at 50% before the match, and Bernard Tomic won 4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(3).

Pick: TomicUpset call

Upset call: the market makes Lajal the favorite; our numbers say Tomic.

Win probability: 50% Tomic · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)

It all comes down to Sunday at Lincoln, where Bernard Tomic faces Mark Lajal for the trophy. Bernard Tomic has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall. Mark Lajal comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule; Lajal comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tomic fractionally more likely to land the big points.

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Updated Jul 18, 2026, 1:30 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.