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Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 20, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 20, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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3 matches are on Monday's card at Estoril, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Titouan Droguet in the round of 32. Our calls: Droguet over Carabelli, Assche over Silva, Rocha over Martinez.

Frederico Ferreira Silva vs. Luca Van Assche

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Luca Van Assche, who won 7-5 6-7 6-1.

Pick: Assche

Win probability: 68% Assche · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)

Monday's Estoril round of 32 pits Frederico Ferreira Silva against Luca Van Assche on clay. Luca Van Assche has won 7 of the last 10. Frederico Ferreira Silva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Assche — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Titouan Droguet

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Titouan Droguet, who won 6-0 3-6 6-4.

Pick: Droguet

Win probability: 55% Droguet · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Titouan Droguet meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Monday. Titouan Droguet comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Droguet's 73.5% behind the first serve (against 67.8% for Carabelli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Droguet fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Henrique Rocha vs. Pedro Martinez

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Henrique Rocha at 70% lost to Pedro Martinez (7-5 7-5).

Pick: Rocha

Win probability: 70% Rocha · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Henrique Rocha goes up against Pedro Martinez in the Estoril round of 32. Henrique Rocha limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Pedro Martinez limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Henrique Rocha simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rocha.

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Updated Jul 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.