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Estoril Predictions & Picks — July 20, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 20, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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3 matches are on Monday's card at Estoril, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Titouan Droguet in the round of 32. Our calls: Droguet over Carabelli, Rocha over Martinez, Assche over Silva. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

Frederico Ferreira Silva vs. Luca Van Assche

Monday's Estoril round of 32 pits Frederico Ferreira Silva against Luca Van Assche on clay. Luca Van Assche has won 7 of the last 10. Frederico Ferreira Silva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Assche — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Assche

Win probability: 68% Assche · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (43%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 68% on Luca Van Assche, who won 7-5 6-7 6-1.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Titouan Droguet

Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Titouan Droguet meet in the round of 32 at Estoril on Monday. Titouan Droguet comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Droguet's 73.5% behind the first serve (against 67.8% for Carabelli) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Droguet fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Droguet

Win probability: 55% Droguet · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 55% on Titouan Droguet, who won 6-0 3-6 6-4.

Henrique Rocha vs. Pedro Martinez

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Henrique Rocha goes up against Pedro Martinez in the Estoril round of 32. Henrique Rocha limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Pedro Martinez limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Henrique Rocha simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rocha.

Pick: Rocha

Win probability: 70% Rocha · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Henrique Rocha at 70% lost to Pedro Martinez (7-5 7-5). It stays up, like every other miss.

Updated Jul 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.