4 matches are on Monday's card at Livesport Prague Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro against Marie Bouzkova in the round of 32. Our calls: Bouzkova over Maneiro, Kudermetova over Korneeva, Ruzic over Salkova, Snigur over Seidel. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Kudermetova over Korneeva — the market disagrees with us there.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Daria Snigur goes up against Ella Seidel in the Livesport Prague Open round of 32. Daria Snigur is 6-4 across recent matches. Ella Seidel has dropped 8 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Daria Snigur is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Snigur around 79%. If Snigur plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Snigur
Win probability: 79% Snigur · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (57%)
Monday's Livesport Prague Open round of 32 pits Jessica Bouzas Maneiro against Marie Bouzkova on clay. Marie Bouzkova is 9-1 across recent matches. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Bouzkova should have enough here, though Maneiro has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 69% Bouzkova · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (46%)
Monday's Livesport Prague Open round of 32 pits Alina Korneeva against Polina Kudermetova on clay. Polina Kudermetova limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Alina Korneeva is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).
Polina Kudermetova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Alina Korneeva.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Kudermetova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: KudermetovaUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Korneeva the favorite; our numbers say Kudermetova.
Win probability: 57% Kudermetova · Most likely score: 2-0 (36%)
Antonia Ruzic and Dominika Salkova meet in the round of 32 at Livesport Prague Open on Monday. Antonia Ruzic has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Dominika Salkova limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
The ledger favors Antonia Ruzic, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Dominika Salkova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Ruzic — worth more than the overall number this week.
Antonia Ruzic is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Ruzic around 59%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Ruzic is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Ruzic
Win probability: 59% Ruzic · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)