3 matches are on Friday's card at Bloomfield Hills, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Michelsen against Mark Lajal in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Michelsen over Lajal, Walton over Zheng, Fearnley over Wolf. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
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Adam Walton and Michael Zheng meet in the quarterfinal at Bloomfield Hills on Friday. Adam Walton has won 7 of the last 10. Michael Zheng comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Walton gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Walton
Win probability: 59% Walton · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Friday's Bloomfield Hills quarterfinal pits J J Wolf against Jacob Fearnley on hard. Jacob Fearnley brings a 7-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. J J Wolf has won 2 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Jacob Fearnley is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fearnley around 63%. Wolf comes in off a compressed schedule; Fearnley comes in off a compressed schedule. Fearnley should have enough here, though Wolf has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Fearnley
Win probability: 63% Fearnley · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Alex Michelsen and Mark Lajal meet in the quarterfinal at Bloomfield Hills on Friday. Alex Michelsen is 7-3 across recent matches. Mark Lajal brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Alex Michelsen simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Michelsen comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Michelsen.
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 61% Michelsen · Sets: 3 (42%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)