12 matches are on Friday's card across 4 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Quentin Halys against Yannick Hanfmann in the semifinal. Our calls: Hanfmann over Halys, Darderi over Faria, Rublev over Assche, Badosa over Sherif, Bublik over Etcheverry, Blockx over Burruchaga, and 6 more. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
July 23, 2026 results: 20-7 → how our picks graded, match by match.
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Friday's Kitzbuhel semifinal pits Quentin Halys against Yannick Hanfmann on clay. Yannick Hanfmann has won 6 of the last 10. Quentin Halys brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hanfmann is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Hanfmann
Win probability: 53% Hanfmann · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Jaime Faria goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Estoril quarterfinal. Luciano Darderi has won 6 of the last 10. Jaime Faria has won 6 of the last 10.
Jaime Faria has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Luciano Darderi. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Faria — worth more than the overall number this week.
Luciano Darderi is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Darderi around 60%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Darderi is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 60% Darderi · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Andrey Rublev and Luca Van Assche meet in the quarterfinal at Estoril on Friday. Andrey Rublev brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Luca Van Assche is 8-2 across recent matches.
Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one.
Rublev's 74.1% behind the first serve (against 67.6% for Assche) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Rublev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 72% Rublev · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Mayar Sherif goes up against Paula Badosa in the Hamburg quarterfinal. Paula Badosa has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Mayar Sherif has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall.
Paula Badosa has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Mayar Sherif. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Badosa — worth more than the overall number this week.
Badosa's 65.1% behind the first serve (against 58.9% for Sherif) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Sherif comes in off a compressed schedule; Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Badosa — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 63% Badosa · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Kitzbuhel semifinal. Alexander Bublik has won 6 of the last 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 3-7 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Alexander Bublik, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Tomas Martin Etcheverry.
Hold strength tells the story — 77.7% versus 71.2% on first-serve points in Bublik's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bublik is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Bublik
Win probability: 56% Bublik · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Friday's Estoril quarterfinal pits Alexander Blockx against Roman Andres Burruchaga on clay. Alexander Blockx is 6-4 across recent matches. Roman Andres Burruchaga comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
The serve is where this match separates: Blockx has been winning 76.2% of first-serve points to Burruchaga's 66%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Blockx should have enough here, though Burruchaga has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Blockx
Win probability: 71% Blockx · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Daria Snigur and Lanlana Tararudee meet in the quarterfinal at Livesport Prague Open on Friday. Daria Snigur is 6-4 across recent matches. Lanlana Tararudee comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Daria Snigur is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Snigur around 52%. Tararudee comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Snigur is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Snigur
Win probability: 52% Snigur · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Anna Bondar in the Hamburg quarterfinal. Anna Bondar has won 5 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Anna Bondar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Bondar around 61%. Bondar should have enough here, though Charaeva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bondar
Win probability: 61% Bondar · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Anhelina Kalinina goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the Hamburg quarterfinal. Anhelina Kalinina is 6-4 across recent matches. Tamara Korpatsch has won 5 of the last 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Kalinina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Kalinina
Win probability: 56% Kalinina · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Marie Bouzkova and Tereza Valentova meet in the quarterfinal at Livesport Prague Open on Friday. Marie Bouzkova has won 9 of the last 10. Tereza Valentova comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Marie Bouzkova has had the better of this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 against Tereza Valentova. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Bouzkova — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Bouzkova should have enough here, though Valentova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 71% Bouzkova · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Elina Avanesyan and Oleksandra Oliynykova meet in the quarterfinal at Hamburg on Friday. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10. Elina Avanesyan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Oleksandra Oliynykova is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Oliynykova around 65%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Oliynykova.
Pick: Oliynykova
Win probability: 65% Oliynykova · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Barbora Krejcikova goes up against Dominika Salkova in the Livesport Prague Open quarterfinal. Barbora Krejcikova comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Dominika Salkova is 6-4 across recent matches.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Hold strength tells the story — 65.8% versus 60.7% on first-serve points in Krejcikova's favor. If Krejcikova plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Krejcikova
Win probability: 82% Krejcikova · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (57%)