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Hamburg Predictions & Picks — July 24, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 24, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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4 matches are on Friday's card at Hamburg, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Mayar Sherif against Paula Badosa in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Badosa over Sherif, Kalinina over Korpatsch, Bondar over Charaeva, Oliynykova over Avanesyan.

Alina Charaeva vs. Anna Bondar

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Anna Bondar at 61% before the match, and Anna Bondar won 6-1 7-6.

Pick: Bondar

Win probability: 61% Bondar · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Anna Bondar in the Hamburg quarterfinal. Anna Bondar has won 5 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Anna Bondar is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Bondar around 61%. Bondar should have enough here, though Charaeva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Anhelina Kalinina vs. Tamara Korpatsch

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Anhelina Kalinina at 56% lost to Tamara Korpatsch (6-3 1-6 6-1).

Pick: Kalinina

Win probability: 56% Kalinina · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Anhelina Kalinina goes up against Tamara Korpatsch in the Hamburg quarterfinal. Anhelina Kalinina is 6-4 across recent matches. Tamara Korpatsch has won 5 of the last 10.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Kalinina gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Mayar Sherif vs. Paula Badosa

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 63% on Paula Badosa; Mayar Sherif won 7-6 6-7 6-4.

Pick: Badosa

Win probability: 63% Badosa · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Mayar Sherif goes up against Paula Badosa in the Hamburg quarterfinal. Paula Badosa has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Mayar Sherif has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall.

Paula Badosa has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Mayar Sherif. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Badosa — worth more than the overall number this week.

Badosa's 65.1% behind the first serve (against 58.9% for Sherif) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Sherif comes in off a compressed schedule; Badosa comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Badosa — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Elina Avanesyan vs. Oleksandra Oliynykova

Not gradedThis match ended in a walkover, advancing Elina Avanesyan. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Oliynykova

Win probability: 65% Oliynykova · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)

Elina Avanesyan and Oleksandra Oliynykova meet in the quarterfinal at Hamburg on Friday. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 6 of the last 10. Elina Avanesyan comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Oleksandra Oliynykova is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Oliynykova around 65%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Oliynykova.

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Updated Jul 23, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.