3 matches are on Friday's card at Winnipeg, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Clement Chidekh against Liam Draxl in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Draxl over Chidekh, Samuel over Hsu, Monday over Mochizuki. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Monday over Mochizuki — the market disagrees with us there.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Toby Samuel goes up against Yu Hsiou Hsu in the Winnipeg quarterfinal. Toby Samuel is 6-4 across recent matches. Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Toby Samuel simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Samuel win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 77% Samuel · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
Johannus Monday and Shintaro Mochizuki meet in the quarterfinal at Winnipeg on Friday. Johannus Monday has won 6 of the last 10. Shintaro Mochizuki comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.4% versus 69% on first-serve points in Monday's favor. Monday comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Monday win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: MondayUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Mochizuki the favorite; our numbers say Monday.
Win probability: 77% Monday · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Clement Chidekh and Liam Draxl meet in the quarterfinal at Winnipeg on Friday. Liam Draxl has won 6 of the last 10. Clement Chidekh comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Liam Draxl simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Chidekh comes in off a compressed schedule; Draxl comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Draxl is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Draxl
Win probability: 57% Draxl · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)