3 matches are on Friday's card at Winnipeg, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Clement Chidekh against Liam Draxl in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Draxl over Chidekh, Samuel over Hsu, Monday over Mochizuki.
The boldest call on the card: Monday over Mochizuki — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Samuel
Win probability: 77% Samuel · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Toby Samuel goes up against Yu Hsiou Hsu in the Winnipeg quarterfinal. Toby Samuel is 6-4 across recent matches. Yu Hsiou Hsu has won 6 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Toby Samuel simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Samuel win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: MondayUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Mochizuki the favorite; our numbers say Monday.
Win probability: 77% Monday · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Johannus Monday and Shintaro Mochizuki meet in the quarterfinal at Winnipeg on Friday. Johannus Monday has won 6 of the last 10. Shintaro Mochizuki comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.4% versus 69% on first-serve points in Monday's favor. Monday comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Monday win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Draxl
Win probability: 57% Draxl · Sets: 3 (46%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Clement Chidekh and Liam Draxl meet in the quarterfinal at Winnipeg on Friday. Liam Draxl has won 6 of the last 10. Clement Chidekh comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Liam Draxl simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Chidekh comes in off a compressed schedule; Draxl comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Draxl is exactly that — a lean.
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