Saturday's Bloomfield Hills semifinal pits Jacob Fearnley against Michael Zheng on hard. Michael Zheng brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten. Jacob Fearnley is rolling — 8 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Michael Zheng is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zheng around 59%. Fearnley comes in off a compressed schedule; Zheng comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Zheng gets the nod on the finest of margins.