6 matches are on Saturday's card across 4 events, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Blockx against Luciano Darderi in the semifinal. Our calls: Blockx over Darderi, Halys over Bublik, Snigur over Valentova, Assche over Gaston, Sherif over Korpatsch, Bondar over Avanesyan. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Snigur over Valentova — the market disagrees with us there.
July 24, 2026 results: 10-11 → how our picks graded, match by match.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Alexander Blockx goes up against Luciano Darderi in the Estoril semifinal. Alexander Blockx comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Luciano Darderi is 6-4 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Blockx's 76.2% behind the first serve (against 70.9% for Darderi) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Blockx gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: BlockxUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Darderi; our numbers say Blockx.
Win probability: 56% Blockx · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Saturday brings the Kitzbuhel final: Alexander Bublik against Quentin Halys. Quentin Halys has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Alexander Bublik has won 6 of the last 10.
Quentin Halys leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Halys — worth more than the overall number this week.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Bublik comes in off a compressed schedule; Halys comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Halys is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: HalysUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Bublik the favorite; our numbers say Halys.
Win probability: 55% Halys · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Saturday's Livesport Prague Open semifinal pits Daria Snigur against Tereza Valentova on clay. Daria Snigur is 6-4 across recent matches. Tereza Valentova is 5-5 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Valentova comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Snigur — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: SnigurUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Valentova the favorite; our numbers say Snigur.
Win probability: 62% Snigur · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (40%)
Saturday's Estoril semifinal pits Hugo Gaston against Luca Van Assche on clay. Luca Van Assche is 8-2 across recent matches. Hugo Gaston is 5-5 across recent matches.
The ledger favors Luca Van Assche, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Hugo Gaston. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Assche — worth more than the overall number this week.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Assche should have enough here, though Gaston has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Assche
Win probability: 61% Assche · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Saturday's Hamburg semifinal pits Mayar Sherif against Tamara Korpatsch on clay. Mayar Sherif has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Tamara Korpatsch has won 5 of the last 10.
Tamara Korpatsch has had the better of this rivalry, winning 1 of 1 against Mayar Sherif. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Korpatsch — worth more than the overall number this week.
Mayar Sherif simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Sherif.
Pick: Sherif
Win probability: 64% Sherif · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Saturday's Hamburg semifinal pits Anna Bondar against Elina Avanesyan on clay. Anna Bondar has won 5 of the last 10. Elina Avanesyan has won 6 of the last 10.
They have split their 2 previous meetings evenly at 1-1. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Avanesyan — worth more than the overall number this week.
Bondar's 64.5% behind the first serve (against 57.4% for Avanesyan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Bondar comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Bondar win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Bondar
Win probability: 74% Bondar · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (49%)