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Washington Predictions & Picks — July 27, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 27, 2026

Every pick below gets graded after the match — wins and misses both stay up.

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6 matches are on Monday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Clara Tauson against Elisabetta Cocciaretto in the round of 32. Our calls: Tauson over Cocciaretto, Krueger over Boulter, Fernandez over Linette, Keys over Samsonova, Navarro over Kenin, Tjen over Sramkova. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.

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Liudmila Samsonova vs. Madison Keys

Liudmila Samsonova and Madison Keys meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Madison Keys is 8-2 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova is 4-6 across recent matches.

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 5-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Keys — worth more than the overall number this week.

Madison Keys is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Keys around 65%. The edge belongs to Keys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Keys

Win probability: 65% Keys · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Madison Keys at 65% lost to Liudmila Samsonova (3-6 6-4 6-4). It stays up, like every other miss.

Emma Navarro vs. Sofia Kenin

Emma Navarro and Sofia Kenin meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Emma Navarro has won 7 of the last 10. Sofia Kenin comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Sofia Kenin leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Kenin — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Navarro fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Pick: Navarro

Win probability: 59% Navarro · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Emma Navarro, who won 6-0 7-5.

Leylah Fernandez vs. Magda Linette

Monday's Washington round of 32 pits Leylah Fernandez against Magda Linette on hard. Leylah Fernandez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Magda Linette is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).

The ledger favors Leylah Fernandez, 3-1 across their 4 meetings with Magda Linette. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Fernandez — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Fernandez gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Pick: Fernandez

Win probability: 54% Fernandez · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Leylah Fernandez at 54% before the match, and Leylah Fernandez won 6-1 6-4.

Clara Tauson vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Monday's Washington round of 32 pits Clara Tauson against Elisabetta Cocciaretto on hard. Clara Tauson has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Hold strength tells the story — 67.3% versus 60.7% on first-serve points in Tauson's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tauson is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Tauson

Win probability: 53% Tauson · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Clara Tauson at 53% lost to Elisabetta Cocciaretto (4-6 7-6 7-6). It stays up, like every other miss.

Ashlyn Krueger vs. Katie Boulter

Ashlyn Krueger and Katie Boulter meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Ashlyn Krueger is 8-2 across recent matches. Katie Boulter limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Krueger is exactly that — a lean.

Pick: Krueger

Win probability: 52% Krueger · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Ashlyn Krueger, who won 3-6 6-2 6-2.

Janice Tjen vs. Rebecca Sramkova

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Janice Tjen goes up against Rebecca Sramkova in the Washington round of 32. Janice Tjen is 3-7 across recent matches. Rebecca Sramkova has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The serve is where this match separates: Tjen has been winning 67.5% of first-serve points to Sramkova's 61.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Tjen — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Pick: Tjen

Win probability: 69% Tjen · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Janice Tjen at 69% before the match, and Janice Tjen won 6-4 6-2.

Updated Jul 26, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.