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Washington Predictions & Picks — July 27, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · July 27, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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6 matches are on Monday's card at Washington, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Liudmila Samsonova against Madison Keys in the round of 32. Our calls: Keys over Samsonova, Tauson over Cocciaretto, Fernandez over Linette, Krueger over Boulter, Navarro over Kenin, Tjen over Sramkova.

Liudmila Samsonova vs. Madison Keys

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Madison Keys at 65% lost to Liudmila Samsonova (3-6 6-4 6-4).

Pick: Keys

Win probability: 65% Keys · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

Liudmila Samsonova and Madison Keys meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Madison Keys is 8-2 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova is 4-6 across recent matches.

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 5-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 3-0 Keys — worth more than the overall number this week.

Madison Keys is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Keys around 65%. The edge belongs to Keys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Emma Navarro vs. Sofia Kenin

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Emma Navarro, who won 6-0 7-5.

Pick: Navarro

Win probability: 59% Navarro · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)

Emma Navarro and Sofia Kenin meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Emma Navarro has won 7 of the last 10. Sofia Kenin comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Sofia Kenin leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Kenin — worth more than the overall number this week.

Emma Navarro is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Navarro around 59%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Navarro fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Leylah Fernandez vs. Magda Linette

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Leylah Fernandez at 54% before the match, and Leylah Fernandez won 6-1 6-4.

Pick: Fernandez

Win probability: 54% Fernandez · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)

Monday's Washington round of 32 pits Leylah Fernandez against Magda Linette on hard. Leylah Fernandez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Magda Linette is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).

The ledger favors Leylah Fernandez, 3-1 across their 4 meetings with Magda Linette. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Fernandez — worth more than the overall number this week.

Leylah Fernandez simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Fernandez gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Clara Tauson vs. Elisabetta Cocciaretto

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Clara Tauson at 53% lost to Elisabetta Cocciaretto (4-6 7-6 7-6).

Pick: Tauson

Win probability: 53% Tauson · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)

Monday's Washington round of 32 pits Clara Tauson against Elisabetta Cocciaretto on hard. Clara Tauson has dropped 2 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Hold strength tells the story — 67.3% versus 60.7% on first-serve points in Tauson's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tauson is exactly that — a lean.

Ashlyn Krueger vs. Katie Boulter

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 52% on Ashlyn Krueger, who won 3-6 6-2 6-2.

Pick: Krueger

Win probability: 52% Krueger · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)

Ashlyn Krueger and Katie Boulter meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Monday. Ashlyn Krueger is 8-2 across recent matches. Katie Boulter limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Krueger is exactly that — a lean.

Janice Tjen vs. Rebecca Sramkova

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Janice Tjen at 69% before the match, and Janice Tjen won 6-4 6-2.

Pick: Tjen

Win probability: 69% Tjen · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Janice Tjen goes up against Rebecca Sramkova in the Washington round of 32. Janice Tjen is 3-7 across recent matches. Rebecca Sramkova has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

The serve is where this match separates: Tjen has been winning 67.5% of first-serve points to Sramkova's 61.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Tjen — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

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Updated Jul 26, 2026, 2:09 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.