6 matches are on Tuesday's card at San Marino, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Francesco Maestrelli against Lukas Neumayer in the round of 32. Our calls: Neumayer over Maestrelli, Monteiro over Sanchis, Dellien over Martinez, Pavlovic over Gaubas, Taberner over Olivieri, Cecchinato over Agamenone. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Taberner over Olivieri — the market disagrees with us there.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Hugo Dellien goes up against Pedro Martinez in the San Marino round of 32. Hugo Dellien is 7-3 across recent matches. Pedro Martinez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hugo Dellien simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Dellien.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 67% Dellien · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Tuesday's San Marino round of 32 pits David Jorda Sanchis against Thiago Monteiro on clay. Thiago Monteiro has won 6 of the last 10. David Jorda Sanchis limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Monteiro — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Monteiro
Win probability: 60% Monteiro · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Franco Agamenone and Marco Cecchinato meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Tuesday. Marco Cecchinato limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Franco Agamenone has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.3% versus 64.2% on first-serve points in Cecchinato's favor. The edge belongs to Cecchinato — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Cecchinato
Win probability: 71% Cecchinato · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Carlos Taberner and Genaro Alberto Olivieri meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Tuesday. Carlos Taberner limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Genaro Alberto Olivieri is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 65.8% versus 59.9% on first-serve points in Taberner's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Taberner.
Pick: TabernerUpset call
Upset call — the market makes Olivieri the favorite; our numbers say Taberner.
Win probability: 61% Taberner · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Francesco Maestrelli goes up against Lukas Neumayer in the San Marino round of 32. Lukas Neumayer is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (6 of the last 10). Francesco Maestrelli limps in on a 9-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Neumayer gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Neumayer
Win probability: 55% Neumayer · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Luka Pavlovic and Vilius Gaubas meet in the round of 32 at San Marino on Tuesday. Luka Pavlovic brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Vilius Gaubas has dropped 3 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.2% versus 64.4% on first-serve points in Pavlovic's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Pavlovic fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: PavlovicUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Gaubas; our numbers say Pavlovic.
Win probability: 52% Pavlovic · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)