Tennis predictions, July 28, 2026: Michelsen vs. Draper, Fils vs. Jodar

Alex Michelsen and Jack Draper meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Tuesday. Jack Draper has won 6 of the last 10. Alex Michelsen has won 4 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Draper has been winning 74.3% of first-serve points to Michelsen's 69.7%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Draper gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar meet in the round of 32 at Washington on Tuesday. Arthur Fils has won 7 of the last 10. Rafael Jodar is 8-2 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Arthur Fils, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Rafael Jodar.

Fils's 74% behind the first serve (against 69.1% for Jodar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Alexandra Eala against Qinwen Zheng on hard. Qinwen Zheng is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Alexandra Eala is 6-4 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Zheng's 72.1% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Zheng should have enough here, though Eala has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Brandon Nakashima goes up against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Washington round of 32. Brandon Nakashima is 7-3 across recent matches. Tomas Martin Etcheverry comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

The ledger favors Tomas Martin Etcheverry, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Brandon Nakashima.

The serve is where this match separates: Nakashima has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Etcheverry's 71.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Nakashima fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Ben Shelton against Martin Damm on hard. Ben Shelton limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10. Martin Damm comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Shelton.

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Frances Tiafoe against Terence Atmane on hard. Frances Tiafoe has won 8 of the last 10. Terence Atmane is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).

Frances Tiafoe leads the head-to-head 3-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Tiafoe — worth more than the overall number this week.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tiafoe.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Aleksandar Kovacevic goes up against Cameron Norrie in the Los Cabos round of 32. Cameron Norrie has dropped 5 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Aleksandar Kovacevic limps in on a 5-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

The ledger favors Aleksandar Kovacevic, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Cameron Norrie. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Kovacevic — worth more than the overall number this week.

Cameron Norrie is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Norrie around 56%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Norrie is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Learner Tien in the Washington round of 32. Learner Tien comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Adrian Mannarino is 5-5 across recent matches.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Learner Tien is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tien around 64%. Tien should have enough here, though Mannarino has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Kamil Majchrzak against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul has won 7 of the last 10. Kamil Majchrzak comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Tommy Paul simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Paul.

Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Cristina Bucsa against Polina Kudermetova on hard. Cristina Bucsa has dropped 5 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Polina Kudermetova limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

Cristina Bucsa is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bucsa around 51%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bucsa fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Anna Kalinskaya goes up against Daria Kasatkina in the Washington round of 32. Anna Kalinskaya comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daria Kasatkina has won 6 of the last 10.

Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 3-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 2-1 Kasatkina — worth more than the overall number this week.

Hold strength tells the story — 62.9% versus 59% on first-serve points in Kalinskaya's favor. The edge belongs to Kalinskaya — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Mackenzie Mcdonald in the Washington round of 32. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Mackenzie Mcdonald has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Michelsen win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Ann Li goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Washington round of 32. Ann Li limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Magdalena Frech is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (2 of the last 10).

The ledger favors Ann Li, 2-0 across their 2 meetings with Magdalena Frech. On hard specifically it reads 2-0 Li — worth more than the overall number this week.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Li fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Coleman Wong and Darwin Blanch meet in the round of 32 at Los Cabos on Tuesday. Coleman Wong has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Darwin Blanch has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Coleman Wong simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Wong is exactly that — a lean.

Camila Osorio and Storm Hunter meet in the round of 32 at Memphis (Usa) on Tuesday. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Storm Hunter is 6-4 across recent matches.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Osorio should have enough here, though Hunter has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Gabriel Diallo and Tristan Boyer meet in the round of 32 at Los Cabos on Tuesday. Gabriel Diallo is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Tristan Boyer has dropped 4 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.2% versus 67.5% on first-serve points in Diallo's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Diallo.

Sloane Stephens and Yuliia Starodubtseva meet in the round of 32 at Memphis (Usa) on Tuesday. Yuliia Starodubtseva has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Sloane Stephens limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Starodubtseva fractionally more likely to land the big points.