5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Memphis (Usa), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anastasia Zakharova against Camila Osorio in the round of 16. Our calls: Osorio over Zakharova, Kessler over Zarazua, Sonmez over Kalieva, Zarazua over Maria, Volynets over Shymanovich. As always, every pick below is graded after the fact and stays up, right or wrong.
The boldest call on the card: Zarazua over Maria — the market disagrees with us there.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iryna Shymanovich goes up against Katie Volynets in the Memphis (Usa) round of 16. Katie Volynets has won 6 of the last 10. Iryna Shymanovich is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Shymanovich needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Volynets
Win probability: 75% Volynets · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Wednesday's Memphis (Usa) round of 16 pits Anastasia Zakharova against Camila Osorio on hard. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Camila Osorio simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Osorio is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 55% Osorio · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Memphis (Usa) round of 32 pits Mccartney Kessler against Renata Zarazua on hard. Mccartney Kessler has won 4 of the last 10. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Kessler has been winning 63% of first-serve points to Zarazua's 57.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kessler.
Pick: Kessler
Win probability: 62% Kessler · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elvina Kalieva goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Memphis (Usa) round of 16. Zeynep Sonmez limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Elvina Kalieva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Zeynep Sonmez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sonmez around 50%. Sonmez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Sonmez gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 50% Sonmez · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Renata Zarazua and Tatjana Maria meet in the round of 16 at Memphis (Usa) on Wednesday. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Tatjana Maria brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Zarazua comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Zarazua is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: ZarazuaUpset call
Upset call — the market favors Maria; our numbers say Zarazua.
Win probability: 53% Zarazua · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)