5 matches are on Wednesday's card at Memphis (Usa), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anastasia Zakharova against Camila Osorio in the round of 16. Our calls: Osorio over Zakharova, Kessler over Zarazua, Sonmez over Kalieva, Zarazua over Maria, Volynets over Shymanovich.
The boldest call on the card: Zarazua over Maria — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Volynets
Win probability: 75% Volynets · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iryna Shymanovich goes up against Katie Volynets in the Memphis (Usa) round of 16. Katie Volynets has won 6 of the last 10. Iryna Shymanovich is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Shymanovich needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 55% Osorio · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Memphis (Usa) round of 16 pits Anastasia Zakharova against Camila Osorio on hard. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Osorio is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kessler
Win probability: 62% Kessler · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Wednesday's Memphis (Usa) round of 32 pits Mccartney Kessler against Renata Zarazua on hard. Mccartney Kessler has won 4 of the last 10. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Kessler has been winning 63% of first-serve points to Zarazua's 57.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kessler.
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 50% Sonmez · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elvina Kalieva goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Memphis (Usa) round of 16. Zeynep Sonmez limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Elvina Kalieva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Zeynep Sonmez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sonmez around 50%. Sonmez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Sonmez gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: ZarazuaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Maria; our numbers say Zarazua.
Win probability: 53% Zarazua · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Renata Zarazua and Tatjana Maria meet in the round of 16 at Memphis (Usa) on Wednesday. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Tatjana Maria brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Zarazua comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Zarazua is exactly that — a lean.
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