✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alex De Minaur at 52% before the match, and Alex De Minaur won 6-4 3-6 6-3.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 52% Minaur · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alex De Minaur goes up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Washington round of 32. Alex De Minaur is 7-3 across recent matches. Stefanos Tsitsipas is rolling — 5 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Stefanos Tsitsipas leads the head-to-head 12-1, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 9-1 Tsitsipas — worth more than the overall number this week.
Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Minaur fractionally more likely to land the big points.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 52% on Leylah Fernandez; Alexandra Eala won 6-2 7-6.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 52% Fernandez · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Washington round of 16 pits Alexandra Eala against Leylah Fernandez on hard. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala is 6-4 across recent matches.
Fernandez's 64.8% behind the first serve (against 60.3% for Eala) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Eala comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fernandez is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 58% on Soon Woo Kwon; Arthur Gea won 6-4 6-7 6-2.
Pick: Kwon
Win probability: 58% Kwon · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Wednesday's Los Cabos round of 32 pits Arthur Gea against Soon Woo Kwon on hard. Soon Woo Kwon has won 8 of the last 10. Arthur Gea has won 7 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kwon is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 59% on Denis Shapovalov, who won 2-6 6-3 6-2.
Pick: Shapovalov
Win probability: 59% Shapovalov · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Denis Shapovalov goes up against Rinky Hijikata in the Los Cabos round of 32. Denis Shapovalov comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Rinky Hijikata has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Denis Shapovalov leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Shapovalov — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.7% versus 68.8% on first-serve points in Shapovalov's favor. Little separates them; Shapovalov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Alex Michelsen at 63% before the match, and Alex Michelsen won 6-4 7-6(3).
Pick: Michelsen
Win probability: 63% Michelsen · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Adrian Mannarino and Alex Michelsen meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 6 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Alex Michelsen simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Michelsen — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 61% on Lorenzo Musetti, who won 6-3 5-7 6-3.
Pick: Musetti
Win probability: 61% Musetti · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Aleksandar Vukic goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Washington round of 16. Lorenzo Musetti is 6-4 across recent matches. Aleksandar Vukic is rolling — 6 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Lorenzo Musetti is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Musetti around 61%. The edge belongs to Musetti — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jenson Brooksby at 52% before the match, and Jenson Brooksby won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: Brooksby
Win probability: 52% Brooksby · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Corentin Moutet goes up against Jenson Brooksby in the Los Cabos round of 32. Jenson Brooksby is 4-6 across recent matches. Corentin Moutet has dropped 3 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
The ledger favors Corentin Moutet, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Jenson Brooksby. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Moutet — worth more than the overall number this week.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Brooksby is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Taylor Fritz was our 69% pick, and won 6-3 6-4.
Pick: Fritz
Win probability: 69% Fritz · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Kamil Majchrzak and Taylor Fritz meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Taylor Fritz is 8-2 across recent matches. Kamil Majchrzak is 7-3 across recent matches.
Fritz's 74.6% behind the first serve (against 70.4% for Majchrzak) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fritz should have enough here, though Majchrzak has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Martin Landaluce at 50%, but Michael Zheng won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: LandaluceUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Zheng the favorite; our numbers say Landaluce.
Win probability: 50% Landaluce · Sets: 3 (52%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Wednesday's Los Cabos round of 32 pits Martin Landaluce against Michael Zheng on hard. Martin Landaluce limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Michael Zheng is 5-5 across recent matches.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Landaluce gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Elisabetta Cocciaretto was our 55% pick, and won 6-3 4-6 6-3.
Pick: CocciarettoUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Navarro; our numbers say Cocciaretto.
Win probability: 55% Cocciaretto · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elisabetta Cocciaretto goes up against Emma Navarro in the Washington round of 16. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is 4-6 across recent matches. Emma Navarro has won 7 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cocciaretto is exactly that — a lean.
Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Naomi Osaka. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.
Pick: Osaka
Win probability: 67% Osaka · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Ashlyn Krueger and Naomi Osaka meet in the round of 16 at Washington on Wednesday. Naomi Osaka comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Ashlyn Krueger comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.1% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Osaka's favor. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 55% on Camila Osorio; Anastasia Zakharova won 6-4 6-3.
Pick: Osorio
Win probability: 55% Osorio · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
Wednesday's Memphis (Usa) round of 16 pits Anastasia Zakharova against Camila Osorio on hard. Camila Osorio comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Anastasia Zakharova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Osorio is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Adam Walton at 65% lost to Dalibor Svrcina (6-7 7-6 6-3).
Pick: Walton
Win probability: 65% Walton · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Adam Walton and Dalibor Svrcina meet in the round of 32 at Los Cabos on Wednesday. Adam Walton is 6-4 across recent matches. Dalibor Svrcina has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Walton's 70.9% behind the first serve (against 62.8% for Svrcina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Walton should have enough here, though Svrcina has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez at 52% before the match, and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez won 6-7 7-5 6-2.
Pick: MendezUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Shimabukuro the favorite; our numbers say Mendez.
Win probability: 52% Mendez · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (26%)
Wednesday's Los Cabos round of 32 pits Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sho Shimabukuro limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mendez is exactly that — a lean.
✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 62% on Mccartney Kessler; Renata Zarazua won 6-4 6-1.
Pick: Kessler
Win probability: 62% Kessler · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Wednesday's Memphis (Usa) round of 32 pits Mccartney Kessler against Renata Zarazua on hard. Mccartney Kessler has won 4 of the last 10. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The serve is where this match separates: Kessler has been winning 63% of first-serve points to Zarazua's 57.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kessler.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Anastasia Potapova was our 55% pick, and won 6-3 6-3.
Pick: Potapova
Win probability: 55% Potapova · Sets: 2 (69%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Venus Williams in the Washington round of 32. Anastasia Potapova comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Venus Williams is searching for form, having lost 10 in a row (0 of the last 10).
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
Anastasia Potapova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Potapova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✗ Pick wrongA miss: Zeynep Sonmez at 50% lost to Elvina Kalieva (3-6 7-5 7-5).
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 50% Sonmez · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elvina Kalieva goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Memphis (Usa) round of 16. Zeynep Sonmez limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Elvina Kalieva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Zeynep Sonmez is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sonmez around 50%. Sonmez comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Sonmez gets the nod on the finest of margins.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Renata Zarazua was our 53% pick, and won 6-4 6-4.
Pick: ZarazuaUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Maria; our numbers say Zarazua.
Win probability: 53% Zarazua · Sets: 2 (60%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Renata Zarazua and Tatjana Maria meet in the round of 16 at Memphis (Usa) on Wednesday. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Tatjana Maria brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Zarazua comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Zarazua is exactly that — a lean.
✓ Pick rightWe got this one right. Katie Volynets was our 75% pick, and won 6-4 6-2.
Pick: Volynets
Win probability: 75% Volynets · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Iryna Shymanovich goes up against Katie Volynets in the Memphis (Usa) round of 16. Katie Volynets has won 6 of the last 10. Iryna Shymanovich is 3-7 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Shymanovich needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.